Highlights:
– In October 2008 the AFO has been linked to over 70 killings in Tijuana
– Continuous targeting of the AFO by the Mexican military has complicated internal disputes for leadership
– Rival groups such as the Sinaloa and Gulf Cartels are intensifying efforts to assume control of the lucrative drug routes to California
The Tijuana Cartel, the most dominate drug cartel operating in the area, became known as the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO) after Ramon Eduardo Arellano Felix and his family took control of the region in the 1990s. The organization won its notoriety for smuggling tons of Colombian cocaine, Mexican marijuana, as well as heroin and methamphetamines into the United States for the past two decades.
Original leader Ramon Arellano Felix was killed in a Mazatlan gun battle with police in February 2002 and brother Benjamin Arellano Felix, considered the cartel’s mastermind, was arrested weeks later in March 2002. The youngest brother, Francisco Javier Arellano Felix, was also arrested in August 2006. The remaining brother Eduardo Arellano Felix was named a kingpin of the organization in 2004 and remains wanted by US and Mexican authorities on drug trafficking related charges.
Despite these significant set-backs, the AFO has continued drug trafficking operations throughout Baja California. However, rival organizations, and increased military and law enforcement targeting have disrupted the overall capabilities of the group from its 1990’s prominence. Although the AFO will likely continue to function as an organization, its overall effectiveness will continue to decrease in the near to mid-term.
Rising Violence in Tijuana
Currently, it is believed that Enedina Arellano Felix, one of Ramon’s four sisters, has taken over managing the AFO after intense pressure from police and rival cartels resulted in the death or arrest of several key AFO leaders. In October 2008, the group was linked to over 70 killings in Tijuana alone:
• On October 4, 2008, a municipal police officer was killed in a police shootout where five members of the Arellano Felix family cartel were arrested.
• On September 29, 2008, east of Tijuana, police found 12 men with plastic bags tied over their heads in a lot near a primary school with an accompanying message indicating possible retaliation for the arrest of an AFO hit man.
Mexican authorities believe that most of the recent victims are members of the AFO:
• On October 4, 2008, police found eight bodies in a vehicle parked between two shopping centers. The bodies had been tortured before death and “retaliation” messages also accompanied their bodies.
• On October 2, 2008, eight victims were found dumped in an empty lot near a day care center.
• On October 1, 2008, police found a barrel of human remains in acid with a message from a rival gang threatening to make more “soup” of rivals.
Surrounding Pressures
The AFO has long defended its historical trafficking base in Tijuana from rivals vying for its lucrative routes to California. However, the recent violence is evidence that the cartel is losing its foothold. In January 2007, President Calderon initiated Operation Tijuana, deploying 3,300 federal police and soldiers to the region. The ongoing military targeting across border regions has led to a repositioning by the major cartels and an explosion of violence for territorial control.
The mafia-style organization of AFO has traditionally relied on strong familial loyalties to unify its members. However, the arrest and death of AFO leaders has caused much of the organization to splinter into smaller cells of disorganized crime. Current family members, such as nephew Fernando Sanchez Arellano, have expressed interest in taking control of AFO’s operations, thanks largely to his personal support from Tijuana’s corrupt police force. However, rival and former AFO lieutenant Teodoro Garcia Simental also likely intends to seek leadership within the organization, indicating a likely upcoming power struggle between the two men to unite the fracturing cartel.
As military targeting has weakened much of the operational capabilities of the AFO and new leadership has failed to quell internal divisions, outside rival groups, such as the Sinaloa cartel led by Joaquin “Shorty” Guzman, and the Gulf Cartel, are intensifying their methods to take control of Tijuana’s highly lucrative drug routes to California. Various factions of the Gulf Cartel have shown a presence in the region recently, and numerous executions in the style of Gulf allied Los Zetas have been carried out in September and October 2008 – indicating that both groups are actively trying to eliminate the remaining members of the AFO in Tijuana.
Outlook
The AFO will likely continue to lose operational control of Tijuana’s drug trafficking routes, however, it is unlikely that the group will dissolve altogether in the near-term. The family will likely continue to operate in smaller, well-armed, unorganized fractions in the mid to long-term.
While the violence in Tijuana will likely be played out among cartel members and government officials and police in the near-term, it is increasingly likely that civilians will also be targeted in the near to mid-term. The rivaling cartels continually utilize new ways to pressure police and military to stand down, and will likely escalate their actions to include further intimidation and violence.
