Highlights
– Russia keeps significant troop levels in South Ossetia and Abkhazia
– Russia refusing to leave the Georgian town of Akhalgori
– European Union remains divided over how to deal with a resurgent Russia
On October 8, 2008 Russia began its pullout from the so-called buffer zone next to Georgia’s breakaway province of South Ossetia.
The withdrawal follows a European Union (EU) brokered ceasefire deal reached on September 8, 2008. Under the agreement, Russia agreed to withdraw all forces by October 10, 2008 from buffer zones close to South Ossetia and the second breakaway province of Abkhazia. However, Russia is refusing to leave the strategic town of Akhalgori, located 34km northwest of Tbilisi. Russian and South Ossetian forces captured the town during the five-day conflict that began on August 7, 2008.
With Russia refusing to leave the Georgian town of Akhalgori, it is certain to be a major point of contention between the two countries in the near to mid-term. As Georgian forces slowly retake areas held by Russian military forces since the five-day conflict, there is potential for small-scale clashes if Georgia attempts to either surround or enter Akhalgori.
Additionally, Russian troops are refusing to leave South Ossetia and Abkhazia, despite agreeing on August 12, 2008 to withdraw its forces to the positions occupied before the outbreak of hostilities with Georgia. While Georgian President Mikheil Saakaashvili uses this as evidence of Russia’s attempts to undermine the Georgian government, the Kremlin says realities changed when it recognized both breakaway regions as independent.
With Russia planning to keep at least 7,600 troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as remaining entrenched in Akhalgori, the result is likely the permanent redrawing of the map of Georgia, as well as Europe as a whole.
Partial Withdraw
On October 10, 2008 France’s Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner stated that Russia was not fully complying with the terms of a ceasefire. In addition to raising tensions with Georgia, Kouchner’s statement casts fresh doubt on whether frozen EU-Russia partnership talks will resume in the near-term.
Russia has partly complied with the French-brokered ceasefire, largely by pulling out of the buffer zones on October 8, 2008. However, France is criticizing the decision by Moscow to keep its soldiers stationed inside of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Despite French criticism and EU-Russia talks in jeopardy, Russia is unlikely to withdraw its forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the near to mid-term. By having troops in the two breakaway regions, Moscow can continue to keep a close eye on the Saakaashvili government and further deter Tbilisi from potentially launching another military invasion of South Ossetia to retake the disputed region.
Russia and the EU
Western diplomats largely concede that once Moscow fully completes its withdrawal from the buffer zones, it is unlikely to budge any further. However, the potential for EU sanctions against Russia appears to be rapidly diminishing ahead of an international conference in Geneva scheduled for October 15, 2008 on the future of Georgia and the region.
Because nearly 60 percent of natural gas and oil supplies come from Russia, Europe is not positioned to implement sanctions or isolate Russia economically. There is much division in Europe on how to approach Russia and the EU’s future relations with the country. With Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK) supporting a more hard-line approach compared to Germany and Italy, the likelihood of a unified, tough stance against Moscow is diminished in the near to mid-term.
Outlook
Russia is expected to keep a significant troop and larger military presence in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the near to mid-term. The primary reason for this is to keep a close eye on the pro-Western Saakaashvili government, indicating that Russia is preparing for a long-term troop presence in the area. As Georgia attempts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it will be Russia’s near-term goal to prevent Tbilisi from expanding ties and relations with the West.
In terms of Russia-EU relations, little is likely to change in the near to mid-term. The division in Europe largely prevents any unified action to be taken against Russia that will have any effect. However, countries like France and the UK will continue using harsh rhetoric against Russia, but without a unified EU, are unlikely to effectively punish Russia for its actions against Georgia.
