Highlights
– Tensions between Russia and the United States are expected to heighten when naval exercises with Venezuela begin in November 2008
– Russia claims military maneuvers are not a response to US support for Georgia
– A long-term, large Russia military presence in the Caribbean Sea is unlikely
On September 11, 2008 two Russian TU-160 long-range bombers were sent to Venezuela, representing the first of several military aircraft and other equipment expected to be deployed to the South American country for joint-training exercises.
In addition to the two Russian long-range bombers, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will host Russia’s largest and most powerful warships, including the Peter the Great and the anti-submarine vessel Admiral Shabanenko, as well as two other vessels, in November 2008.
The sending of a nuclear cruiser and other warships and planes for joint exercises with Venezuela represents the first of such maneuvers in the United States (US) vicinity since the Cold War. The joint-military exercises are evidence of how extensive the military relationship between Russia and Venezuela is, ultimately heightening tensions and signaling the potential for a new regional Cold War.
Russia-Venezuela Partnership
While the latest announcement of the extensive joint-military training exercises between the two countries may be troubling, it is not surprising. The partnership between Russia and Venezuela has been underway for some time.
• In July 2008, Caracas announced a five-year plan by Russian energy giants LUKoil and Gazprom to invest up to $30billion in projects in Venezuela’s oil-rich Orinoco basin.
• In July 2008, President Chavez announced the purchase of a number of anti-aircraft systems, three Varshavianka-class submarines, 53 helicopters, and 24 Sukhoi fighter planes, totaling almost $4.5 billion.
• A Kalashnikov rifle factory located in Venezuela appears to be underway after several delays and is causing unease among the country’s neighbors, as the belief exists that the rifles may end up in the hands of regional terrorist groups.
Tension between the US and Russia has already been heightened due to Moscow’s recent invasion and continued occupation of parts of Georgia since August 2008 (Previous Report). The latest deployment of Tu-160’s and the scheduled November 2008 military exercises only further increases tensions between the two countries.
The US largely interprets the November exercises as an act of geopolitical theater by Moscow, a move that sends a warning that if the US sees fit to make military alliances in Russia’s backyard, Russia will do the same. However, both Chavez and the Russian leadership insist the exercises were planned long before the Georgia war and are simply an expansion of current Venezuelan-Russian military cooperation.
While there is no question that both Russia and Venezuela cooperate on both military and economic issues, the latest military maneuvers announced are likely related to US support for Georgia and other countries along Russia’s borders, as well as a response to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) naval activity in the Black Sea.
A Future Russian Presence in the Caribbean
While the deployment of the long-range bombers and powerful warships to the Caribbean will escalate tensions and create further distrust between the US and Russia, it does not however herald the beginning of a second Cold War.
Russia emerged relatively isolated from the Georgian crisis, having received the support of only a few countries, which includes Venezuela and Syria. Moscow seems to be converting these diplomatic links into closer military cooperation, as Syria had offered Russia the use of the Soviet-era naval supply base in the port of Tartus and Russian leadership is vowing both military and diplomatic support for Damascus (Previous Report).
However, despite renewed military support for Venezuela, we do not believe Russia will establish a large, permanent military presence in the Caribbean Sea.
• First, while Chavez hails Russia as an ally, he has denied that Moscow would be allowed to build military bases in Venezuela, citing Article 13 of the country’s constitution forbidding any foreign military bases on national territory.
• Second, Venezuela presently appears unwilling to make itself vulnerable by substituting for the role played by Cuba ahead of the 1962 missile crisis.
• Last, any indication that Russia was planning a long-term, large military presence in the Caribbean, particularly naval presence, would be in direct confrontation with the US and have serious consequences.
While a long-term, major military presence in the Caribbean Sea is unlikely, Russian influence and limited intervention in the region is concerning for the US. Emboldened by Russian diplomatic support and the recent purchasing of advanced weapons, Chavez’s anti-American bellicosity is likely to increase. However, Venezuela’s dependence on revenues from oil exports ultimately limits the options it has when dealing with the US and its allies in the region.
