Highlights
– Philippines Supreme Court ends agreement between government and MILF
– Peace panel scrapped by Arroyo, direct dialogue to be new tactic
– Rebel MILF commanders acting alone, Philippine security forces on alert
For over 40 years, the government of the Philippines has waged a constant battle against a small number of groups seeking to install a Muslim state in the south of the country. Beginning with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), and later the more radicalized Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the government has sought to appease the Muslims living in the area, going so far as to sign a truce in 1986. More radical factions that were unsatisfied with the agreement, however, including the Abu Sayyaf Group, continued to wage battle against the government for an entirely autonomous Muslim state in the south.
While it appeared that the government had come close to reaching an agreement with leaders of MILF, a recent Supreme Court decision to end the negotiations, coupled with President Arroyo’s decision to disband the negotiating team, has left the peace process in shambles.
Supreme Court of the Philippines Blocks Deal
The Supreme Court of the Philippines has ruled that an autonomy deal near agreement should be ended, resulting in numerous clashes that have left dozens dead. Last month, a Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain had been drawn up, extending the land area to be administered by autonomous Muslim leaders. The agreement appeared to be the closest that the government and rebel forces had reached in an effort for lasting-peace in some time.
On August 5, 2008 government officials and foreign diplomats flew to Malaysia – which mediated the process – for the planned signing of the agreement, only to retreat red-faced. It appears that the court was responding to virulent protests by Christian communities in areas of Mindanao that the agreement would convert into Muslim-controlled lands. Clashes broke out immediately after the court’s decision that resulted in dozens killed.
While the legal basis for the decision remains in question, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has already taken steps to move away from the agreement. We do not expect further legal action in terms of the peace agreement, but anticipate that steps will be taken to continue dialogue with the rebels in the near to mid-term.
President Arroyo Disbands Panel
While a five-year old ceasefire had been in place between MILF and the Philippine government, following the Supreme Court decision, President Arroyo indicated on September 3, 2008 that she was going to take the negotiation process in a different direction. Having disbanded the panel of negotiators responsible for finding common ground with MILF representatives, President Arroyo indicated that the new tactic would be direct dialogue with local leaders.
Indicating that negotiators could no longer deal with a group that was unable to control rogue commanders, President Arroyo voiced strong condemnation of the fighting which killed scores of soldiers, rebels and civilians in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) – the region of the Philippines that is composed of the countrys’ predominantly Muslim provinces. A spokesman for President Arroyo indicated that the dismantling of the peace group was entirely within the President’s power, and further stated that she was committed to finding peace with the rebel group. Should the Malaysian-backed mediators continue to work with the Philippine government and MILF negotiators, we anticipate that both sides will return to the negotiating table in the mid-term.
Rogue MILF Units Attack Civilian Communities
Complicating government efforts at instituting a new ceasefire agreement is the propensity for splinter groups to develop when the interests of radicalized members are not adequately addressed. Authorities now generally agree that the fighting that erupted after the Supreme Court’s decision to end the peace agreement negotiations was the result of two rebel MILF commanders who now appear to be operating without the authority of the group.
Umbra Kato and Abdurahaman Macapagar are both being pursued by government troops for leading followers to attack towns and villages in the southern region of Mindanao shortly after the court’s decision. Civilians killed after the clashes broke out were shot and hacked to death according to reports. The violence has displaced roughly 500,000 persons and the International Committee of the Red Cross has stated that the clash in the southern Philippines has reached its worst point in five years.
Until MILF leaders are willing to hand over Kato and Macapagar, it appears that the government of the Philippines will circumvent the rebel group’s leadership and institute direct talks at individual communities in the region.
Outlook
The Supreme Court’s decision to end the agreement between the government and MILF forces, and President Arroyo’s decision to disband the peace talk panel, were both serious setbacks to lasting peace in the Philippines. Analysts agreed that after over four decades of fighting, the most recent Malaysian-backed peace deal appeared the closest the government and rebels had come to a lasting peace deal.
While we do not anticipate the government is insincere in its willingness to continue to pursue peace efforts, we foresee further attacks from militant rebel MILF commanders who are disenfranchised with the government’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. Should MILF leaders be willing and able to capture and hand over Kato and Macapagar, we anticipate a quick resumption of peace talks that could lead to a lasting agreement in the near to mid-term.
