Highlights
– People’s Alliance for Democracy demands Samak’s resignation
– Thousands of protestors camp out at Bangkok’s Government House
– Prime Minister declares state of emergency in Bangkok
September 1, 2008 marked the one-hundredth day of protests staged by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) against what its leaders claim are Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej’s corrupt practices. One day later Prime Minister Samak declared a state of emergency in Bangkok.
While it appeared that a state of emergency was going to be avoided, a clash on Tuesday between pro-government and anti-government forces that resulted in one dead and dozens injured, was the impetus the Prime Minister needed. It was the first serious violence in what has become a stubborn class struggle between the Thai middle class and a beleaguered government backed by a business and financial elite acting in the name of Thailand’s poor.
With the military’s unwillingness to depose another government and the apparent backing of the King, we foresee Prime Minister Samak retaining office in the near-term, despite the freshly declared state of emergency.
People’s Alliance for Democracy Wants Less Democracy
Since August 26, 2008 over 30,000 protestors have taken up positions at various government ministries and the Prime Minister’s residence, Government House. With over 10,000 protestors occupying the grounds surrounding Government House, Prime Minister Samak has been forced to work from a remote location until the crisis subsides.
According to PAD leaders, the group is demanding the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Samak, who they view as a proxy of the formerly deposed Prime Minister Thaskin Shinawatra – who was removed by the military in a bloodless coup in 2006.
Additionally, the group, despite its name, wants to abolish democratic elections in parliament for the majority of seats. Instead, PAD wants seats to be appointed by members of the civil service and military, leaving only 30 percent of seats open for elections. PAD claims the rural majority that makes up the majority of support to the Prime Minister’s People’s Power Party (PPP) are too uneducated and unsophisticated to vote for parliamentarians.
Thai Protesters Target Transport and Utilities
Prior to the state of emergency, the opposition illustrated its logistical capability and cohesion in the face of the Prime Minister’s reluctance to step down by announcing an array of moves that would affect industries throughout Bangkok, including the tourist industry.
Labor unions representing over 200,000 workers at 43 state enterprises said on September 1, 2008 that they would cut off water, electricity and telephone services to government officials beginning the next day. Additionally, Thai Airways personnel indicated they would delay flights as well. The threat of flight delays comes on the heels of the closure of three provincial airports on August 29, 2008 – including those at the beach resorts of Phuket and Krabi, popular tourist destination in the country’s south.
Employees of the Thailand State Railway (SRT) coordinated with their union to carry out a strike against the government on August 28th. That strike, obstructing service throughout the north and northeast, remained in effect until the state of emergency was declared.
In addition to the transport and utility protests planned for the week, protestors twice raided the main studios of the government-run National Broadcasting Services of Thailand (NBT) on September 1, 2008. Both raids resulted in the arrest of protestors and the resumption of broadcast services later in the day.
While the numbers of protestors stationed at various government facilities and the Government House grew as high as 30,000 at one point, the protests remained largely nonviolent until last night’s clashes. Now that the state of emergency has been declared, we anticipate the majority of protestors to disperse out of fear of renewed violence. Further, given Samak’s history of violence against protestors, we expect only the most adamant activists to continue protesting.
Prime Minister Samak Refuses to Step Down, Declares State of Emergency
It appeared that Prime Minister Samak did not initially have the backing of Thailand’s military. Despite Samak’s position as Defense Minster, army chief General Anupong Paochinda explicitly stated that the army would not intervene to depose Samak – but rather expected the crisis to be resolved politically. Nevertheless, on September 2, 2008, Thailand’s government banned gatherings of five or more people and gave Chief Paochinda the power to break up any gathering and the power to force people to leave any location.
Further buttressing Prime Minister Samak’s position is the apparent support he has received from Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej. While having no formal political power, the King has repeatedly brought calm to the country during times of turmoil. Additionally, Samak’s six-party ruling coalition has largely indicated that it would not seek to dissolve parliament. However, the coalition did show some signs of deterioration before the state of emergency was declared – the Chart Thai Party, a key member of Samak’s coalition, indicated on Friday that it was ready for Samak to leave office.
With the military’s unwillingness to depose another government – Thailand has experienced 18 coups since independence – and the King’s apparent backing, we foresee Prime Minister Samak retaining office in the near-term, despite the freshly declared state of emergency. However, should protestors manage to incite a major violent backlash from government forces, political analysts believe the opposition will manage to convince the current coalition to expel Samak from office.
Outlook
While the United States has remained largely silent on the current situation in Thailand, Defense Secretary Gates stated in June 2008 that he expects the Thai military to respect civilian rule and not depose yet another Thai government, particularly one that was elected democratically. Further, Secretary Gates said that democracy was the foundation of America’s relationship with the Thai military, an indirect swipe at PAD’s demands of deconstructing Thailand’s democratic system of governance.
Chamlong Srimuang, a former army general and governor of Bangkok who has led the anti-government protests, was defiant in the face of the state of emergency. Srimuang indicated that the protests would continue despite the state of emergency. Should the protestors continue to clash with government forces, Prime Minister Samak will be in a difficult position given his history of quelling protests violently – in 1976, Samak ordered soldiers to shoot-to-kill students organizing anti-government protests resulting in at least 46 deaths. In the near-term, we expect both government forces and protestors to proceed cautiously to avoid the likelihood of major violence.
