Highlights
– US Consulate in Istanbul is Difficult to Attack
– US Diplomatic Facilities Will Continue to be Targeted
– Motive and Affiliation of Attackers is Unclear
At first glance, the attack by armed gunmen on a guard post outside the United States (US) Consulate in Istanbul on Wednesday July 9, 2008 appears to be a resurgence of terrorist activity against diplomatic facilities abroad. In the attack, three gunmen arrived by car outside the consulate and started shooting, soon exchanging gunfire with the Turkish policemen guarding the outside of the consulate. Three gunmen and three policemen were killed in the exchange. One of the wounded gunmen also allegedly shot himself in an effort to avoid being captured.
According to press reports, a fourth individual who remained in the car fled the scene. This individual is now in police custody facing interrogation but it is unclear if he was a willing participant in the attack or an unsuspecting taxi driver who had the misfortune to pick up the wrong passengers. At the present time, at least 10 suspects have been linked to the consulate shooting investigation and four individuals are in custody.
Turkey’s Terrorism Problem
In recent decades Turkey has become home to a variety of terrorist groups and threats over the past few decades. The most serious threat to date has been from Kurdish separatists embodied in the form of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In addition, both left wing and right wing groups operate in Turkey, as well as Islamic extremists. Almost five years ago, al-Qaeda related terrorists attacked the British Consulate , HSBC Bank, and two synagogues in a series of coordinated car bomb attacks. Since that time, Turkish authorities have cracked down on suspected Islamic extremist activities and reportedly apprehended a number of al-Qaeda members in the country.
In March 2007 at least 48 suspects were arrested with purported links to al-Qaeda. Additionally a number of reports indicate arrests of alleged al-Qaeda suspects have occurred in the intervening years since the Istanbul bombings in 2003. In addition, after a lengthy three year trial of suspects in the Istanbul bombing ended in 2007, Turkish authorities believed that they had gained a great deal of information about al-Qaeda’s influence in Turkey (Previous Report).
Although both US and Turkish authorities have stated their belief that the shooting outside the embassy should be classified as a terrorist attack, there seems to be a great deal of speculation on whether an organized group is behind the attack. The United States and its symbols such as a diplomatic consulate are probable targets for terrorists worldwide. US foreign policy as embedded in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), and military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have inflamed tensions worldwide leading to anti-American sentiment in some countries. Turkey is no exception. An al-Qaeda connection to the incident is certainly being investigated. One of the gunmen is alleged to have traveled to Afghanistan raising the question of foreign connections influencing this attack.
In addition, the Turkish press is reporting that Erkan Korgin, one of the gunmen had been sentenced for membership in the Great Islamic Eastern Warrior’s Front (IBDA-C). The group is believed to have links to al-Qaeda and claimed joint responsibility for the November 2003 Istanbul bombings. However, IBDA-C is considered largely impotent and has a history of claiming responsibility for actions it did not commit. While the group was active during the 1970-1990s, they have largely been decimated and inactive since that time.
Failed Attack or Amateur Hour?
Conflicting press reports cast doubt on al-Qaeda’s footprint or other foreign influence in this attack. A Turkish newspaper is reporting that the attack did not resemble an al Qaeda attack. The attack is considered unprofessional and it is possible that the perpetrators were a self-motivating force. It does seem odd that the attackers would choose this method of attack with no real chance of success of breaching the inner sanctum of the Consulate or causing major damage with just three gunmen. The US Consulate in Istanbul was moved to its present location for security reasons and to better protect against terrorism. Even if the gunmen managed to make it past the security checkpoint, the long corridor to the Consulate entrance lobby and the fact that elevators must be taken up to the actual Consulate would allow security to react to any closer intrusion and help prevent against a car bomb. The narrow confines of the area leading up to the Consulate entrance would also make it difficult for intruders to make their escape.
Therefore, as long as the attackers researched the Consulate’s layout, they would have realized it would be very difficult to breach the Consulate, but decided to move ahead with the attack anyway. If they did not know the layout, then the amateurism of the attack becomes even more apparent. Alternatively, this attack could have been a test or trial run just to see how far an assault team could penetrate into the defenses of the Consulate.
Outlook
The attack or failed attack on the US Consulate depending on one’s viewpoint, is a disturbing indicator that no matter how much diplomatic and government facilities are hardened here and abroad, terrorists will continue to attack them. The investigation is still ongoing, however, should a larger organization be found behind this attack, we believe it is an indication that Turkey will continue to face a threat from Islamic radicalism in the near term.
