Highlights
– Indian opposition coalition withdraws from government to protest nuclear pact with the United States (US)
– Agreement still needs approval from international community as well as the US
– US Democrats likely to block final approval of deal before Congress is adjourned
On July 9, 2008, Indian left-wing parties formally withdrew from the government as the ruling party submitted a draft of India’s plans for safeguarding its civilian nuclear facilities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The draft has suffered delays for months as opposition parties stalled parliamentary action on a landmark nuclear deal with the United States (US).
As we have previously reported, US President George W Bush and Indian Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh signed the nuclear deal in March 2006 but the US did not lift prohibition on nuclear cooperation with Indian until August 2007 (Previous Report). However, in the past year the Communist Party of India – Marxist (CPI-M) prevented Parliament from making any headway on the deal.
Although the withdrawal of the opposition parties has led the governing coalition to seek a vote of confidence, the Congress party claims it has gained the support of several smaller opposition parties that would prevent an early election. Regardless of the result of the vote of confidence, the deal still must gain both IAEA and US approval before the US Congress adjourns in September 2008.
International Obstacles
Before the US Congress can vote on the agreement, it must be cleared by both the IAEA and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). While it appears likely that the IAEA will pass the deal, the NSG may not give its approval. India has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and the agreement has sparked fears that a nuclear buildup in India may lead to an arms race involving neighboring nuclear powers Pakistan and China.
Opposition in India and the US
The agreement has faced opposition in both India and the US. Indian critics argue that the deal will compromise India’s independence and tie the country’s nuclear program to the US; infringing upon its sovereignty. A senior CPI-M leader told supporters at a meeting in New Delhi, “We cannot support a government that is undermining our independent foreign policy.”
On the other side, US lawmakers argue that the deal reverses three decades of US policy toward India. In particular, US Democrats are blaming the Bush administration of ignoring US non-proliferation policies and political timetables.
Weak support for the deal in the US has aided the Indian opposition. CPI-M general secretary Prakash Karat stated, “The popularity of President George W Bush in the US is 20-25 percent. He is the President of a minority. We have a Prime Minister who is heading a minority government. A minority President and minority Prime Minister are trying to hook this country to US hegemony.”
Agreement Increasingly Unlikely
The probability of the finalization of the nuclear deal in the US Congress is becoming increasingly unlikely. Even if the IAEA and the NSG give their approval, US legislative rules require that Congress be in session for at least 30 workdays to consider the package and there are only 40 days left before the September 29, 2008 adjournment. Democrats are unlikely to allow an extra session after US elections in November and while both presidential candidates support the deal, it is unlikely to be a priority for whichever candidate wins the White House.
Further, the nuclear deal will likely lead to sustained political uncertainty in India. If the government looses the vote of confidence, early elections will be called leading to a near-certain end of the nuclear pact.
