Highlights
– Iran insists its conventional forces are ready to respond in the event its facilities are attacked
– While the prospects of war are low in the near-term, the region is preparing for the outbreak in conflict
With tensions between Iran and the West escalating over the country’s controversial nuclear program, concerns regarding a possible Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities are on the rise.
According to United States (US) sources, Israel recently conducted a large-scale aerial exercise over the Mediterranean in what is believed to have been a dress rehearsal for a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Such an attack, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei, would turn the Middle East region into a “ball of fire.” Additionally, as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to claim its intention to impose controls on shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz if attacked, as well as warnings of reprisals against any attacker and its allies in the region, fears have increased around the world regarding the threat of a confrontation.
While much talk on Iran mostly focuses on the country’s nuclear ambitions and long-range ballistic missile capabilities (Previous Report), the Islamic Republic maintains a growing conventional force, which is ready to respond to a possible military strike on its nuclear infrastructure.
Conventional Capabilities
Published reports indicate Iran currently has approximately 545,000 personnel in active service. The army compromises 350,000 men, including 220,000 conscripts. The IRGC, largely viewed as the most loyal guardian of the ruling system, contains another 125,000 men. Outside of the regular armed forces, the IRGC maintains its own Navy, Air Force, and Ground Forces, and the highly trained Quds Force.
The Army has nearly 1,700 tanks, including some 100 Zulfiqar locally produced main battle tanks, as well as Soviet-made T-54 and T-55s, T-59s, T-62s, and T-72s. However, according the International Institute for Strategic Studies, some of tanks’ serviceability may be in doubt, as a result of aging.
The Iranian Navy has traditionally been the smallest branch of the country’s Armed Forces because it was designed solely to secure its own ports and coast. It consists of only 18,000 personnel and the ships are mostly Chinese, Russian, and French-made missile boats. In particular, Iran has several Chinese Cat-14 fast attack catamarans that travel near 50 knots and are armed with the latest design of Chinese anti-ship missiles. However, outside of the Cat-14s, the rest of Iran’s Navy largely consists of small coastal and inshore patrol craft.
The Iranian Air Force reportedly has some 52,000 personnel and 281 combat aircraft. However, serviceability may be as low as around 60 percent for US aircraft types and 80 percent for Russian aircraft, which includes the country’s F-14s and MiG-29 aircraft.
The Potential for Conflict
While the US touts a desire for a diplomatic end to the atomic row with Iran, officials have not ruled out the use of force. Israeli officials continue arguing a nuclear Iran is not an option, conversely, Iran’s reiteration that the state of Israel must be destroyed have caused escalated tensions. Speculation continues to mount that Israel is planning to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in an effort to prevent the country from going nuclear, however, it may be extremely difficult to prevent Tehran from retaliating in Iraq and elsewhere in the region.
Iran could employ several tactics in a potential war, including unconventional or asymmetric methods. In the past, Iran’s military mounted hit-and-run raids on oil tankers and other shipping in the Gulf involving small speedboats mounted with missiles, in which the IRGC is believed to have been the driving force in developing such tactics. If such a method were employed, it would cause havoc in the Gulf and drive crude oil prices to record levels.
The Iranian military could launch an assault on the US 5th Fleet that is stationed in Bahrain. Iran still has warships equipped with Russian-designed Shkval torpedoes that it could fire at American and allied vessels in the region. This goes along with warnings made by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claiming Iran would strike US interests in the region if pushed or attacked, including using the country’s vast missile arsenal to target US bases in Bahrain and Qatar.
Additionally, the country could renew efforts to stir an uprising in Iraq through Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army or other special groups allied with the IRGC. However, what has really concerned American officials is that Iranian intelligence and Hezbollah may employ terrorist operations against soft targets, including shopping malls and community centers, in third countries.
Outlook
Whether it is resorting to supporting terrorist attacks in third countries, stirring up violence in Iraq, attacking American and allied bases in the region, launching hit-and-run raids against oil tankers in the Gulf, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, or launching a conventional attack against Israel, Iran has several options in the event an armed conflict becomes a reality.
While the outbreak of conventional conflict between the US and Israel and Iran remains low in the near-term, it is clear that countries in the Middle East are preparing for conflict, with Iran boosting its defensive and offensive capabilities and Israel conducting dry runs for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Interviews with current and former national security officials in the US suggest that Washington and its allies in the Middle East are bracing for unconventional and conventional attacks from Iran in response to any such Israeli action.
