Editor’s Note: This report is the first installment of a four-part assessment of al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY). The assessment will focus on targeting strategies, group dynamics, counter-offensive efforts, and future implications.
Highlights
– AQY has grown in number, strength and support in recent months
– Funding from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has increased the group’s capabilities and influenced targeting strategies
– AQY will continue to grow and develop capabilities in the mid-term
Following a short period of sporadic attacks in late 2007, the al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) terrorist organization has recommitted itself to the jihad in Yemen. Conducting at least one major attack each month since the beginning of 2008, the group has demonstrated its determination to push Westerners and other non-Arab foreigners out of Yemen and further seek to attack Western interests in the country.
AQY’s attack strategies and targets have evolved to include Western Embassies, foreign tourists, and Western compounds in recent months. However, as Yemen security forces increase counterterrorism measures, AQY operations will begin to taper off in the near term, allowing the organization to regroup and replenish its capacity for jihad.
Funding and guidance from the more established, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), will lead to further growth and expansion of the AQY in the mid-term.
2008 Attack Tallies
Within six months, the AQY has carried out five times as many attacks this year than in 2007. Last year, AQY conducted three attacks that received large-scale media and global attention, including the July 2, 2007 attack on Spanish tourists that killed nine people and the November 5, 2007 sabotage of an oil pipeline in the Marib province (Terrorist Attack, Terrorist Attack).
To date, however, the AQY has carried out a total of 15 attacks, resulting in the deaths of eight people and injuring 32. Despite killing more people in a single attack in 2007, the group’s evolving targets and frequency of attacks demonstrate significant growth and strength within the organization.
The most recent attack occurred June 30, 2008. AQY militants fired three rocket-propelled grenades against an oil refinery east of Sanaa. No deaths or injuries were reported .
More importantly, the group’s target portfolio has also expanded to include highly fortified institutions, such as the United States Embassy in March 2008 and the Presidential palace in May 2008 (Terrorist Attack, Terrorist Attack). Although in actuality the AQY missed the mark in both operations, the boldness to attack such targets indicates the group’s commitment and determination to jihad in Yemen, as well as the group’s growth in capabilities and morale.
Attacks Temporarily Taper Off, Group and Cell Dynamics Develop
So far in 2008, the AQY has been consistent in its attacks, carrying out at least one each month since January 2008. Attacks peaked in March and April 2008, numbering ten separate attacks, killing four and injuring 27. However, attacks have lessened in the last two months, as Yemen security forces have increased counter-terrorism and security measures. To this end, significant numbers of AQY militants have been arrested and/or killed in recent months, thus severely impacting the group’s attack frequency and methods of operation.
However, we believe the group will use this time to regroup and recommit itself to the jihad. AQY will likely engage in morale boosting activities, such as posting propaganda materials on jihadist websites and reaching out to other more senior, well-established terrorist groups for support and funding, such as AQAP in the near to mid-term.
