Highlights
– FARC top commander Manuel Marulanda died of heart attack in March 2008
– Alfonso Cano named Marulanda’s successor
– Colombian government and its citizens hope successive FARC losses signify organization is weakening
– FARC remain dangerous threat to Colombian stability in the mid-term
On Saturday, May 24, 2008, Colombian officials announced long time Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leader Manuel Marulanda passed away from a heart attack in March, the most recent death in a series of significant FARC losses. Marulanda had been the FARC “supreme leader” since the 1990’s and was believed to have helped integrate the organization with Colombia’s lucrative cocaine business, and the practice of abduction for ransom.
In addition to Marulanda’s death, various other senior level members have been captured, killed, or have surrendered themselves to the Colombian government, prompting speculation that the rebel group is weakening. Just six days prior to the announcement, a top female commander known as “Karina” surrendered to authorities stating the FARC is “decimated,” (Previous Report). The losses will likely affect morale and prompt additional members to question their allegiance, however we believe the FARC will remain a significant threat to Colombia in the mid-term.
Marulanda’s Successor
Shortly after Marulanda’s death was announced, media sources reported Alfonso Cano was appointed the new top commander of the FARC. Cano is described as an “intellectual who is more politically orientated” and an “ideologue but also a hardliner.” In 2000, Cano was the head of FARC’s political arm, the Clandestine Communist Party of Colombia (PCC). His political background has given hope to many citizens that negotiations between the FARC and government may occur. However, several individuals with militarist ideology who also oppose negotiating with the Colombian administration remain leaders in the FARC secretariat. Nevertheless, some analysts have stated it is significant that Cano is not from the military wing and believe dialog may commence for the release of the estimated 750 individuals it holds.
FARC Facing Increased Pressure from the Government
Reportedly, the FARC is becoming increasingly isolated, unpopular and on the defensive. According to media sources, only one percent of Colombians hold a favorable view of the organization. The government has made an attempt to decrease membership by offering FARC members’ development assistance and financial aid to start a new life. Rewards for deserters who release hostages are even higher and reportedly offer up to US$100 million. The government has also improved its intelligence gathering, coordination between military units and the use of informants, which has allowed them to successfully find several key leaders. Additionally, communication among FARC members has been significantly disrupted due to fear conversations will be intercepted. After the announcement of Marulanda’s death, Colombian authorities emphasized the door of peace has always remained open, however intensified military operations will commence if FARC leaders do not seize this opportunity to demobilize.
FARC’s Future
Analysts disagree over the future of the rebel group. Several experts have stated the death and replacement of Marulanda is unlikely to create a breakdown or a change in direction in the rebel group. Most analysts agree the organization has the capability to re-arm. Further, they see no end in sight to the group or its practices. Others, however, are more optimistic. Some analysts state the new leader may follow a political approach that could dominate the current military focus. Additionally, Colombia officials note that the ex-rebel Karina stated that the FARC is cracking.
Despite losing several top leaders and numerous members to the government assistance plan, media sources report membership remains at an estimated 10,000 supporters and the group continues to perpetrate attacks and hold at least 40 high profile hostages. We believe it is unlikely FARC membership will be significantly affected by recent losses. Additionally, it will likely be difficult for Marulanda to shift focus from military to political tactics as several leaders who maintain militarist ideologies remain in power. While it is likely the FARC will be slightly affected by the recent events, we believe it will continue to be a well-funded organization with capacity for violence in the mid-term.
