Highlights
– Mexican drug cartels angered over troop presence in “their territory”
– Drug cartels respond by attacking several federal and state authorities throughout Mexico
– Merida Initiative proposed to combat criminal organizations in Mexico and Central America
– Mexico will likely continue to experience cyclical pattern of violence
Mexican President Felipe Calderon recently strengthened his offensive against domestic drug cartel organizations, infuriating organized crime groups trying to gain control over Mexico’s lucrative drug trade and territory. In addition to cartel on cartel violence (Previous Report), Mexico recently has experienced a series of attacks against senior level federal and state law enforcement, especially those affiliated with security and anti-narcotic operations, in retaliation for the heightened security.
Mexican President Calderon refuses to be intimidated by the drug cartels. Though patterns suggest much of the drug cartel violence is in retaliation to expanded troop deployment, Calderon has continued to tighten security in the most dangerous areas. Since late 2006, Calderon has deployed a total of 25,000 troops and federal police to curtail drug cartel power in various areas. Most recently, Calderon sent an estimated 2700 troops to the state of Sinaloa. The majority of troop deployments have occurred in cities that experience large-scale drug-related violence such as Mexico City, Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. It is likely drug cartels will continue the assassinations on senior level officers until Calderon withdraws troops from areas dominated by drug cartels.
Federal Officials Assassinated by Drug Cartel Members
Mexico has experienced a significant increase in drug-related violence since Calderon launched an offensive against drug cartels more than one year ago. More than 3,000 victims of cartel violence have been cited, among them 170 police officers and more than 30 federal agents. The most recent attacks have targeted individual senior level officials. Law enforcement personnel are targeted for their role in arrests and investigations related to drug cartel activities, as well as for providing protection for a rival drug cartel.
The highest level official to be murdered by a drug cartel to date was a police chief in Mexico City named Edgar Millan Gomez. It is likely Millan was specifically targeted as he had recently announced the arrest of 12 suspected hit men tied to the Sinaloa cartel. Six individuals were arrested in connection with the murder, one of which was a federal official. Overall, since early March 2008, a total of ten federal officers have been targeted, six of which occurred in the first two weeks of May. Millan was the most senior level officer to be killed to date. As cartels increasingly target law enforcement officers, media sources have reported several officers have requested asylum to the United States and at least one police chief in Ciudad Juarez has stepped down after receiving death threats from cartel members.
Merida Initiative
In late 2007, a new initiative was proposed that would allow Mexico to join forces with the United States and other Central American countries in an attempt to control narcotics-related violence. Dubbed the “Merida Initiative” the partnership would aim to produce a “safer and more secure hemisphere where criminal organizations do not threaten governments and prevent the entry and spread of illicit drugs.” If approved, the multi-year program would potentially provide Mexico and other Central American countries with US$550 million dollars for new technology and equipment and technical advice and training.
Looking Ahead
Due to Calderon’s strong stance against the nation’s drug cartels, it is likely an increased military presence will remain in drug cartel dominated regions in the mid to long-term. In response to increased troop deployment in these areas, we believe drug cartels will continue to target opponents in an attempt to intimidate the Mexican government.
Due to corruption and intimidation, we assess it will be very difficult for Calderon’s government to successfully tighten security and gain control of areas where drug cartels exist. Additionally, it is that an increasing number of several high profile federal agents will resign and/or seek asylum in other countries exacerbating Calderon’s challenge to control the cartel violence.
