Highlights
– Serbia’ s coalition governments have encountered many difficulties in the past
– May 2008 elections will reflect citizens’ preferences on nationalism versus pragmatism
– Kosovo’s independence and recognition by the West has strained Serbia’s relations with Western power players
Serbia will hold Parliamentary elections on May 11, 2008. In March of this year, President Boris Tadic called for early elections after dissolving Parliament in the wake of the collapse of the Serbia’s governing coalition (Previous Report). Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica also resigned after failing to forge an agreement among government ministers to suspend European Union (EU) ties as a result of member states’ recognition of Kosovo’s independence on February 17, 2008. Both sides agreed that the government was at an impasse, and thus considered calling for new elections as the fairest choice to ensure Serbian voices were heard.
The independence of Kosovo and its official recognition by EU member states and others set off a firestorm of protests in Serbia and Kosovo. The anger of the Serb people over this issue was palatable and politicians have seized this as an opportunity. How the country votes in the upcoming election will be a litmus test on the future direction of Serbia. One path is to become more pro-Western, and further integrate into the EU. The other path is to adopt a more nationalist, isolationist position looking in the direction of Russia.
Serbia’s Precarious Politics
Serbia has struggled for a long-time with its government and conflicting political ideologies. Nationalists rose to power during the Balkans conflict and some of those tendencies are still prevalent in Serbia today. The separation of Kosovo from Serbian territory is viewed as absolutely unacceptable to even the mainstream Serbian population and this issue has becoming a rallying cry for the nationalist cause. As a result of increasing nationalism, the most radical nationalist political party, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) has made significant progress in Serbian politics.
In the January 2007 general elections, SRS won the largest number of votes, however did not gain enough to govern alone. Serbia was thrown into a crisis of government because it took several months for the various sides to form a coalition government between the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) lead by former Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and the Democratic Party (DS) lead by current President Boris Tadic (Previous Report). This coalition has proved precarious however as Kostunica and his party were never quite comfortable with the aims of the Democratic Party, but believed that the SRS was perhaps too radical. The Kosovo issue and dealing with the EU finally destroyed this coalition. Further, Boris Tadic has struggled to maintain his power as President (Previous Report). In the January 2008 Presidential elections, he only narrowly defeated SRS candidate Tomislav Nikolic.
The Allure of the EU
At the same time, many in Serbia also believe that joining an institution such as the EU would help to improve Serbia’s economic outlook. It is a balance between nationalist pride and economic prosperity. Many Serbs say they are opposed to joining the EU if it entails the condition that they must legitimize Kosovo’s independence. However, many wonder if practicality will ultimately prevail over pride when voters go to the polls. The EU is hoping that this may be the case and has offered Serbia a pre-membership deal. The “Stabilization and Association Agreement” set out the path for Serbia’s EU membership and improves trade and visa issues. It is believed that under this agreement, Serbia could become an official EU candidate by the end of 2008. In other words, this is a fast-track agreement to join the EU. Critics in the EU are upset that this offer has been extended to Serbia while it still has not handed over all its wanted war criminals. However, proponents of the agreement point out that the agreement will not be ratified until Serbia cooperates in full on this issue. Most observers believe that this offer was extended as a concrete measure to help pro-Western, and pro-EU candidates in the polls. Within Serbia, politicians and the media have differing viewpoints. Some believe that this agreement is a sell out of Kosovo to the EU. Vojislav Kostunica has pledged to overturn the agreement should he be returned to office. Others believe it is a guarantee for Serbia to finally move ahead with the assistance of the EU.
Future Outlook
Election day will be about economic prosperity versus national pride. But it will also be about differing political parties trying to form a cohesive government. It is unlikely that the Democratic Party of Serbia and the Democratic Party will try to form another coalition after their last disastrous union. The Serbian Radical Party did very well in the polls in 2007, and with the Kosovo issue now on everyone’s mind, it is likely that they will do even better this time around. However, it is still unlikely that they would have enough of a majority to govern alone, but should they be able to form a coalition with the Democratic Party of Serbia, then the ensuing government would likely be pro-nationalist. Unless there is an overwhelming victory by a particular party, it is also likely that any new coalition government will find common ground difficult to achieve.
