Highlights
– Relations between Russia and Georgia continue downward spiral
– Abkhazia independence aspirations could be conflict flashpoints
The recent shoot down of a Georgian reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) over the disputed territory of Abkhazia has inflamed already tense relations between Russia and Georgia. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia are disputed territories of Georgia. Relations between the regions and Georgia have remained tense since the early 1990s when conflict erupted as these territories sought independence from Georgia.
Currently, both regions operate in a semi-autonomous manner, but have made no secret of their aspirations for independence. The Georgian government claims that a Russian MiG-29 is responsible for destroying the drone and has produced video footage as proof. Georgia has also accused the Russian government of undue aggression and violating international law. As a result, they have put forward their case to the United Nations (UN).
The Russian government on the other hand has scoffed at Georgia’s claims, stating that separatists in Abkhazia are responsible for the downing of the drone and that any video evidence is likely to have been fabricated. They further counter that it is Georgia contravening international law by deploying the drone over Abkhazia, a violation of a UN ceasefire.
Russia and Georgia Tensions
If Russia is determined to be responsible for the downing of the Georgian drone, then this action will only reinforce Georgia’s suspicions that the much more powerful Russia is trying to undermine and suppress Georgia at every turn. Georgians view the Russian state as a bully, and Russia’s recent track record does little to alleviate these perceptions.
Notable perceived Russian aggressions against Georgia include,
• In August 2007, Georgian authorities claimed a Russian made X-58 anti-radar missile landed outside of the Georgian village of Sjavsjvebi after two Sukhoi SU-24 aircraft entered Georgian airspace (Previous Report). The Russian government claimed that the Georgian government fabricated the entire incident in order to gain sympathy from the West.
• In October 2006, Georgia accused several Russian security personnel of spying and a major diplomatic incident spiraled out of control. Russia recalled its ambassador, made bellicose statements against Georgia in the DUMA and instituted economic and transport sanctions against Georgia (Previous Report).
• In the winter of 2006, gas supply to Georgia was temporarily cut. Georgia claimed its pipelines had been sabotaged.
The heart of the Georgia-Russia tension is really about sphere of influence and regional dominance. Although Georgia was once part of the Soviet Union, after independence and more importantly the Rose Revolution, Georgia made no secret about its aspirations to move economically, politically and strategically towards the West. Russia, already felt a sense of encroachment by the West and wanted to keep Georgia under its dominance. The potential expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to include Georgia proved to be an incredibly contentious issue between the West and Russia—ultimately Georgia was denied membership. Many European countries were also fearful that Georgia in NATO would cause too much of a rift with Russia.
Current and Future Concerns
The Georgian government believes that Russia is trying to undermine Georgia’s claims to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In addition to allegedly shooting down the Georgian drone, Russian diplomatic language concerning these territories has concerned many in Georgia and in the international community. Although sanctions were imposed in the region in 1996, Russia recently lifted trade sanctions with Abkhazia leading to fears that the Abkhazia would be able to build up its weapons supply. This action could be seen as a potential trigger for future conflict in the region.
Following Russia’s withdrawal from the sanctions regime, the Putin government declared that Russia would be establishing closer ties to both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would include intensifying social, economic and political cooperation, increasing consular support for Russian residents, and officially recognizing businesses and other organizations there. Although Russia denies this accusation, to many outside observers, these actions seem to be a prelude to the independence recognition of these two territories.
In the aftermath of the Kosovo independence declaration, which Russia vehemently opposed, both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have demanded the right to independence as well. Russia did not support the Kosovo precedent, but would not hesitate to use this precedent with other regions if it suited its own interests. There is of course the danger that other separatist movements within Russia could start using the precedent as well.
It is likely we will see continued Russian instigation in this region for the foreseeable future as a counter to Georgian influence and as a reminder that Russia is the power player in the region. How Georgia chooses to deal with this situation will also impact future security and stability in the region.
