Highlights
– Reported terrorist activity within China worries Beijing Olympics organizers
– Terrorist activity largely originates from separatists in Western China
– Interpol reports “real possibility” of terror attack during Olympic Games
– Protests and civil unrest likely to disrupt games
With only 100 days before the opening ceremonies of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, foreigners and Chinese nationals alike are reporting increased security measures throughout China. The Beijing Organizing Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad (BOCOG) is taking no chances that China’s long anticipated “coming out party” will be marred by protests or terrorist attacks.
In recent months, the Chinese government has repeatedly accused Muslim separatists in Western Xinjiang province of planning to launch attacks during the Summer Olympics. Beijing officials have also accused Tibetans of planning to use “suicide squads” to sabotage the Olympics and promote Tibetan independence.
Additionally, BOCOG planners are worried that activists may attempt to stage protests during the Games, especially after numerous demonstrations occurred during the international leg of the torch relay (Previous Report). While security measures are meant to detect and deter both protesters and terrorists from disrupting the Olympics, we assess that protests or other incidents of civil unrest are more likely to occur than a terrorist attack.
Previous Terrorist Activity
In a rare attack on foreigners, a man armed with explosives took a group of Australian tourists hostage in the northwestern city of Xi’an on March 5, 2008. Police shot the man dead after negotiations for his surrender failed. All ten Australians were reportedly freed without injuries; however, Chinese officials released few additional details of the attack .
Less than one week later, a China Southern flight made an emergency landing after the flight crew prevented two passengers from trying to crash the plane. An ethnic Uighur woman smuggled three containers of gasoline onto the flight and apparently tried to ignite them before flight attendants apprehended her. Chinese authorities later reported that a man of Central Asian decent accompanied the woman. The couple had Pakistani passports and the woman reportedly received training from a Pakistan-based militant group.
Western Unrest
In March 2008, government officials reported that a police raid in January 2008 revealed that a terrorist gang in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, was planning an attack to take place during the Olympics. Two suspected terrorists were killed, 15 others arrested and a Xinjiang Communist Party leader claimed the group had ties to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
ETIM is a militant separatist group fighting for an independent state of East Turkestan. The group is based in Xinjiang; however, past reports indicate that ETIM may receive funding and training from al-Qaeda. Although the group has been less active since the death of its leader in 2003, ETIM remains on the list of terrorist groups by both the US and the United Nations (UN).
Most recently, a plot to kidnap foreign journalists, tourists and athletes during the Beijing Olympics was uncovered during an April 10, 2008 raid in Xinjiang. Police arrested 35 people and uncovered nearly 10 kilograms (22 pounds) of explosives, jihadist literature and plans to attack hotels and government buildings in Beijing and Shanghai.
China has also accused Tibetan independence forces of planning attacks during the Olympics. After riots erupted in Tibet in March 2008, Chinese leaders blamed the Dalai Lama of encouraging Tibetans to violently attack Chinese security forces sent to quell the protests. A government spokesman later reported, “To our knowledge, the next plan of the Tibetan independence forces is to organize suicide squads to launch violent attacks.” The official was not clear where they had obtained this information and Prime Minister (PM) Samdhong Rinpoche of Tibet’s exiled government denied the claim.
Security Measures
On April 25, 2008, the head of Interpol stated that there is a “real possibility” that terrorists could use the international spotlight of the Beijing Olympics to launch an attack. The US and UK immediately issued new travel alerts, updating travel advice issued in March 2008, which said the threat of terrorism in China remained low.
Beijing’s Public Security Bureau launched an “Olympic Security” campaign to last from April to October 2008. Security measures include random identification checks and visa restrictions that will greatly impact foreigners who travel to China on business. Organizing culture events without permission is prohibited and 250 chemicals are restricted for purchase between May 1 and October 17, including those used for school science labs. Security checks at hotels, entertainment areas and rented homes have already been increased.
Despite the intense security measures, there remains the possibility of a terrorist attack during the Games. Hundreds of thousands of foreigners are expected to arrive in Beijing in August 2008, providing easy cover for individuals looking to stage an attack with immediate global repercussions.
However, we maintain that protests, staged by international activists, are more likely to disrupt the Beijing Olympics, due to their previous ability to organize demonstrations with little to no notice.
