Highlights
– Martial law, imposed after the September 2006 coup, to be lifted in northern provinces
– Emergency powers remain in the conflict torn “Deep South”
– Continued allegations of human rights abuses likely to incite future attacks by Muslim insurgents
On April 17, 2008, Thailand’s Prime Minister (PM), Samak Sundaravej, announced the end of martial law in all but the most southern provinces. The following day, Samak, whose People Power Party (PPP) is closely aligned with former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, pledged that the continued state of emergency in the “Deep South” would not last forever but remained imperative while the military battles the ongoing separatist insurgency.
Despite the positive move to lift the controversial law in the northern provinces, Thailand’s southern insurgency shows no sign of abating. Separatists continue to wage a violent campaign seeking independence, as human rights groups claim Thai soldiers torture detained Muslims, further strengthening support for militants who retaliate by targeting civilians.
We assess that martial law in southern Thailand will remain in place for the long-term, as the insurgency continues with no signs of slowing.
State of Emergency Remains in South
Thailand’s National Security Council agreed to lift martial law in 179 districts of 31 provinces, while extending emergency rule in the conflict torn southern provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani. Martial law will also remain in five districts of the southern province of Songkha, to include Thepha, Chana, Na Thawi, Saba Yoi and Sadao.
The cabinet has renewed emergency powers every three months since they were first imposed in the south in June 2005, and the latest extension will last until July 19, 2008. The state of emergency was extended throughout the country in September 2006, after the military ousted PM Thaksin in a bloodless coup. Under the state of emergency, the government can impose curfew, ban public gatherings, censor publications, detain suspects without charge, confiscate property and tap telephones.
Human rights activists have criticized the extension of martial law, claiming that soldiers continue to mistreat detainees. Brian Adams, the Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, reports, “The insurgents justify illegal attacks on civilians by saying they’re retaliating against abuses by Thai security forces, and the Thai army responds in kind. It is a deadly and vicious circle.”
Recent Southern Violence
In the days following PM Samak’s announcement, separatists launched several deadly attacks. On April 20, 2008, a bomb exploded in front of a Yala railway employee’s home, injuring 13 people including a small child . The explosive, reportedly weighing 3-5 kilograms, was hidden in a rubbish bin and destroyed several houses as well as a nearby market.
Later the same day, two policemen were killed when six militants opened fire on an election polling station in front of a mosque . The policemen were guarding the station while voting for a local election took place in Narathiwat. A local villager was also wounded in the attack.
Both attacks followed common methods of the separatist rebels. As we previously reported, insurgents consistently attack civilians seen as collaborating with the Thai government, particularly teachers, Buddhist monks and government officials (Previous Report).
Outlook
In March 2008, reports emerged that an Imam died from unspecified causes while in a Narathiwat jail. The family of Imam Yapa Koseng, arrested for his role in several bomb attacks, claimed his body showed visible signs of torture, after being detained for only two days.
Although PM Samak held a crisis meeting to discuss the deteriorating security situation and promised that an investigation into Yapa’s death was underway, the Prime Minister made no mention of changing security procedures in the south.
Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, separatist rebels will most likely use the publicity of Yapa’s death to gain support for their cause. Attacks on government symbols will likely continue for the mid to long-term as the insurgents have stated they are not interested in dialogue with the government until at least 2012.
