Highlights
– Pre-election violence indicates ongoing tensions amongst opposing political parties
– Maoists emerge as early leaders in Nepal’s landmark elections
– Initial poll results shows voters’ disenchantment with mainstream parties and desire for change
On April 10, 2008, Nepal held its first election in nine years, signaling the end of the 240-year old monarchy and a surprise victory for former Maoist rebels. Although complete election results are not expected until April 22, 2008, election officials report that the Maoists won 101 of the 212 seats declared thus far. The constituent assembly is composed of 601 seats, 240 of which are elected by direct vote, 335 through proportional representation and 26 will be nominated by the new cabinet.
Pre-election violence worried many international observers that the twice-delayed polls would be postponed a third time. However, despite several attacks on candidates and members of the Election Commission, an estimated 60 percent of Nepalese voters turned out to cast their ballots and post-election violence has been minimal.
Despite reported Maoist threats indicating the former rebels would resume fighting if they did not do well in the election, widespread violence and unrest is unlikely for the near-term. The former rebels will likely wait for the official results to be announced before jeopardizing their position in the new government with additional attacks. If the Maoists win a majority of the assembly, violence will likely subside for the near to mid-term.
Pre-election Violence
The Maoists, formerly known as the Communist Party of Nepal, have engaged in an armed insurgency aimed to replace the monarchy with a republic for the past decade. A November 2006 peace accord ended the fighting; however, sporadic violence throughout the country continued throughout 2007 and 2008, escalating in the lead up to the elections.
Although the Maoists have been blamed for the majority of the violence – particularly their youth wing, called the Young Communist League – some of the recent unrest was also attributed to other parties. On April 8, 2008, at least six members of the Young Communist League were reportedly shot dead by security forces of the Nepali Congress, Nepal’s largest and oldest party. Four days earlier, three small bombs were hurled near the Election Commission office in Kathmandu; however, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack . On April 7, 2008, a bomb exploded near an election rally in Kathmandu, injuring 11 people .
Additionally, two days before the election, Rishi Prasad Sharma, an election candidate from the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist party or Communist UML), was shot dead by unidentified gunmen southwest of Kathmandu . Sharma was the second candidate killed in the month before the election, as masked gunmen killed a candidate from the National People’s Front in southern Nepal on March 19, 2008 .
Maoists Surge Ahead
In their election campaign, the Maoists abandoned many of their traditional leftist policies, focusing instead on the importance of foreign investment and public-private partnership. The shift in strategy appears to have paid off as election officials announced their strong lead in the ongoing vote count. Thus far the Communist UML and Nepal Congress each won little more than 25 seats.
A key demand of the Maoists is the ouster of King Gyanendra, who ascended the throne in 2001 and become widely unpopular in 2005 after he fired the government and seized absolute power to fight the Maoists. As we previously reported, the Maoists stormed out of the government in September 2007 demanding the immediate abolishment of the monarchy (Previous Report). After several months of tense negotiations, the ruling alliance and the Maoists agreed to abolish the monarchy after the elections.
Nepal’s Political Outlook
Although the Maoists are far from a confirmed victory, the initial results indicate that Nepal is set to continue on the path to democracy. The high voter turnout reinforces the strong support for democracy in Nepal and the future government. A general disenchantment of the mainstream political parties led to surprisingly weak support of the Nepali Congress and the Communist UML, further signifying the Nepalese voters’ desire for change.
Regardless of the final outcome, the elections will legitimize Maoist participation in government. If the former rebels do secure a simple majority, they will quickly abolish the monarchy and the new constitution will largely be framed around the Maoist ideology of distributive justice and egalitarian principles.
A Maoist win may pose an initial challenge for countries such as the US and India, as the US still labels the Maoists as a terrorist group and India continues to battle its own Maoist insurgency.
A Maoist victory will likely quell violence in Nepal for the near-term; however, if the former rebels do not gain a majority or believe opposition parties are undermining their power, the possibility for continued unrest is likely for the long-term.
