Highlights
– Newly-elected President Dmitry Medvedev expected to continue high-levels of military spending
– Russian Air Force and Strategic Missile Forces two areas that have seen drastic increases in funding
– Internal conflicts within the military establishment are near-term problems, but will not affect Russia’s long-term goal of military superiority
According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, the government will spend approximately US$40 billion of federal budget funds in 2008, a 20 percent increase from 2007, in military expenditures. The Defense Ministry also announced that in 2008-2010, military spending would account for 15-16 percent of aggregate federal budget expenditure.
Most of the funds are reserved for the maintenance of the armed forces, procurement and repair of military equipment, scientific and research work, and construction. Russia has downsized the size of its armed forces to about 1.1 million personnel, but military spending has drastically increased under President Vladimir Putin.
With Vladimir Putin set to leave office, newly elected President Dmitry Medvedev is expected to continue expanding Russia’s military and current high levels of spending.
Sukhoi Su-35
The new Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker – E multi role fighter aircraft will be put into service with the Russian air force in two to three years. The Su-35 is an advanced air superiority fighter jet that has the capacity to intercept air targets with ground and sea attack capabilities using both unguided and guided weapons, including high precision weapons.
The production and eventual completion of the Su-35 fighter aircraft is considered paramount to the Russian air force. The Su-35 will greatly enhance Russia’s air capabilities and will be one of the most advanced fighter jets in commission.
Deliveries of the Su-35 to the Russian Air Force will start in 2010-2011, in which Russia also plans to promote the fighter jet on the traditional arms market in Southeast Asia, Africa, Middle East, and South America. With the production of the new Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft nearly completed, Russia is looking to compete with both the United States and China in promoting its new aircraft to countries eager to beef up their air forces, especially countries in Asia.
The US-Russia competition for the fourth generation fighter aircraft is expected to be intense in the coming years and is considered one of the primary factors driving Russia’s high military spending.
Strategic Missile Forces
Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), or Strategic Rocket Forces, is an arm of the Russian armed forces that controls the country’s land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
Annual spending on combat training in Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces has increased five-fold since 2004. The spending has focused on enhanced combat training, maintenance, operation and scheduled repairs of military hardware. Russia is putting an average of three mobile and three to four fixed-site missile launching systems into operation each year. The SMF is expected to double its test launches of ICBMs after 2009.
Russian leadership during Putin’s rule had reaffirmed on a number of occasions the country’s commitment to building and maintaining a strong nuclear deterrent, while strongly criticizing the proposed deployment of a US missile shield in eastern Europe, as well as the West’s attempt to expand NATO eastward.
Dmitry Medvedev, expected to take office on May 7,2008, is likely to maintain current levels of spending for Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces. Medvedev shares Putin’s concerns of the US proposed missile shield in Eastern Europe and attempts to expand NATO to countries that share a border with Russia.
Future Outlook
While Russia has downsized its armed forces to 1.1 million personnel, Colonel General Vasily Smirnov indicates that it is all part of optimizing the organizational structure of the Russian Armed Forces and not part of a larger downsizing of the country’s military.
However, the recent re-structuring and organizational reform occurring within the Russian military could be part of a larger conflict between the traditionalists and reformers. While increasing military spending is universally agreed upon within the Russian military establishment, reforms and mid to long-term military policy is aggressively debated within the military.
The conflict could continue through the General Staff, led by traditionalist General Yuri Baluyevsky and the Defense Ministry, led by reformer Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. Baluyevsky is a close ally of outgoing President Vladimir Putin; it remains unclear if he will share the same close relationship with Medvedev. Despite the conflict and stark debate within the Russian military establishment, Russia will continue on its path of military advancement.
The Strategic Missile Forces and the Su-35 4.5 generation class multi-role fighter are just two areas Russia is focusing on as it increases spending and re-organizes its military to meet future threats and needs. As Medvedev prepares to take over in May 2008, he will be faced with internal conflicts in the military establishment over Russia’s future military role and goals. Despite the near-term confusion, Medvedev, like his predecessor, will keep defense spending high and push Russia to maintain its status as a competitive nation in the international arms market.
