Highlights
– Yousef Raza Gilani elected prime minister of Pakistan
– New parliament announced expected changes in domestic and foreign policy
– World Bank issued statement urging Pakistan to act quickly to avoid economic crisis
– Despite changes, Gilani unlikely to withdraw support for Global War on Terror
On March 24, 2008, Yousaf Raza Gilani, of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), claimed victory winning by an overwhelming margin to be elected prime minister. One day later Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf swore in Gilani at a formal ceremony in Islamabad, where the new Prime Minister (PM) appealed for national unity to overcome the crises currently facing Pakistan, including a rise in terrorist attacks and a weakened economy.
Gilani’s election as prime minister comes more than one month after Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid (PML-Q) suffered a resounding defeat to the PPP in the February 18, 2008 elections (Previous Report). The PPP subsequently formed a coalition with former PM Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N), the ethnic Pashtun Awami National Party (ANP), and several smaller independent parties (Previous Report). Sharif and PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari announced full support of PM Gilani’s decision to release the Supreme Court justices from house arrest, previously deposed by Musharraf in November 2007 – a move welcomed by Pakistani lawyers.
Gilani’s intended policy changes both domestic and related to the Global War on Terror indicate a shift in Pakistan-US relations. The new Pakistani administration has been reluctant to pursue close ties with US leaders, as Musharraf, a US ally, faces declining popularity. While tensions between the two countries will likely continue for the near to mid-term, Gilani is unlikely to withdraw support from the Global War on Terror in the long-term.
US Relations Strained
US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Richard Boucher visited Pakistan for a series of high-level talks coinciding with Gilani’s swearing in as prime minister. During their meeting with Sharif, the former prime minister asserted that Pakistani politics were no longer “a one man show,” referring to the strong US support Musharraf had received during his last eight years as president, further blaming the US foreign policies for the recent increase in suicide attacks.
The high-profile visit was poorly timed as the newly elected PPP and PML-N parliament is attempting to distance itself from Musharraf’s policies. Many Pakistanis viewed the trip as another instance of US interference in Pakistani politics. In the weeks following the February 2008 election, US leaders also began to distance themselves from Musharraf. Negroponte echoed this sentiment, stating that the internal Pakistani political process will decide the future of Musharraf.
However, much of Musharraf’s current unpopularity rests upon the perception that he continually allows the US to conduct air strikes in Pakistan’s tribal regions, an accusation which Pakistanis claim have stoked a bloody backlash from insurgents. Although neither US leaders nor Musharraf has officially admitted responsibility for the strikes, frequently directed at al-Qaeda or Taliban leaders, officials have never denied the claims.
Impending Economic Crisis
On March 27, 2008, the World Bank called on Pakistan to act quickly to avoid an economic crisis as the country continues to face issues such as inflation, widening fiscal and current account deficits, grain shortages and power cuts. PM Gilani has promised to tackle these issues in light of the approaching summer season and instances of previous power cuts during the warmer months that have led to rioting.
A new cabinet, made up of 11 PPP members, nine PML-N members and four participants representing smaller parties in the coalition, was sworn in on March 31, 2008. Ishaq Dar, the former commerce minister and finance minister under Sharif, was again appointed finance minister and announced that many of Musharraf’s economic policies would soon be reversed. Dar’s appointment was welcomed by many investors who prospered during Sharif’s term as prime minister.
Outlook for the War on Terror
In further efforts to distance themselves from Musharraf’s US-backed policies, leaders of the new parliament have announced plans to hold talks with militants in an attempt to quell the growing trend of terrorist attacks in both major Pakistani cities and along the Afghan border. US leadership remains skeptical of this strategy as Musharraf-led negotiations in 2006 were largely blamed for increased militant activity in Afghanistan and regrouping in Pakistan, leading to increased attacks in the long-term.
Nevertheless, both PM Gilani and ANP secretary general Afrasaid Khattak assert that negotiations will only be conducted with Pakistani militants who have laid down their arms. Gilani denied allegations that deals would be made with hardline leaders such as Baitullah Mehsud, commander of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and wanted for planning the assassination of former PM Benazir Bhutto .
Additionally, while Gilani and his newly formed cabinet will likely continue to distance themselves from close associations with US leaders and policies, they are unlikely to completely cut ties. Pakistan has received roughly US$10 billion in aid from the US since late 2001 and while the economy remains at the top of Gilani’s agenda, it is unlikely he will risk losing foreign investment over a complete abandonment of the War on Terror.
