Highlights
– Opposition candidates barred from winning Presidential elections
– President Medvedev is likely to continue Vladimir Putin’s policies
– Vladimir Putin will continue to influence Russian politics
The successful election of Dmitry Medvedev to the Russian Presidency surprises no one. On March 2, 2008, Medvedev of the United Russia Party won an overwhelming victory with 70.23 percent of the vote to become Russia’s third President. There was never any doubt that Medvedev, former Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protégé, would win the election.
Former President Vladimir Putin is enormously popular in Russia and enjoys hero-like status in the country. Therefore his endorsement of Medvedev is seen as a transference of popularity and a referendum on the Putin legacy.
Opposition parties suffered during the presidential elections due to government-imposed restrictions. Council of Europe election observers, the sole Western entity monitoring the election, specifically noted that opposition candidates were denied access to the media and complex registration requirements made it difficult for independents to qualify for the election. Golos, an independent Russian election observer, also alleged official pressure existed to boost turnout, and occurrences of ballot stuffing and multiple voting. The government has denied these allegations. However most observers agree that the election results did reflect the will of the people, but a people with little faith in democracy. Opposition protestors have already been arrested while attempting to demonstrate against the election results.
Western Reaction
Western and especially US relations with Russia have been extremely tense in recent years, as President Putin has adopted an aggressive foreign policy stance. Contentious issues include: US interceptor missiles in Europe, disagreement over Kosovo’s independence, US military operations in support of the Global War on Terror (GWT), and anger over perceived encroachment of Western institutions and perspectives on former Soviet republics.
While many Western countries believe there are flaws in the election, they have extended offers of congratulation to Medvedev and expressed a willingness to work with him. Most Western countries are not expecting too much of a change in Russian policies with a Medvedev presidency, but they are offering conciliatory diplomatic language in the hopes of improving relations.
Future Outlook
Many expect the Medvedev Presidency to continue Putin’s legacy. Others suspect that Medvedev is simply Putin’s puppet, being a caretaker President until Putin can legally reclaim another Presidential term. An opposing viewpoint posits that Medvedev is more liberal than his mentor and as a result, there could be room for change as Medvedev gains confidence in the job (Previous Report). However, Dmitry Medvedev lacks Putin-like charisma, but ironically seems like the perfect choice for Putin to mold a President in his own image. In all likelihood Vladimir Putin’s choice of successor is calculated and deliberate. It appears that he chose someone who is not likely to usurp his legacy or power.
In an overt attempt to keep a close eye on his successor and to maintain his visibility and relevancy, Putin will take up the position of Prime Minister. To this end, it is likely he will try to make the Prime Minister’s office more powerful. This could certainly bring about conflict between this office and the President’s office, but considering Putin’s track record as a shrewd political operator it is likely he would be on the winning side of any type of power struggle in the future.
