Highlights
− Colombian military midnight raid in Ecuador rekindles conflict
− Venezuela, an ally to Ecuador, enters the clash, scorning Colombian leadership, further deteriorating regional relations
− Tensions will remain high in the near-term; diplomatic solutions are unlikely in the coming days
On March 3, 2008, the United States appealed for an open dialogue between Colombia and Ecuador in order to prevent further escalation of tensions stemming from the Colombian military’s cross-border offensive against Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels based in Ecuador.
The Colombian military, on March 1, 2008, first through an aerial assault followed by a ground offensive, raided and secured a FARC rebel camp approximately one mile into neighboring Ecuador. According to Colombian officials, the motivation for the raid was two-fold:
• Security forces had been taking fire and been attacked from the Ecuadorian FARC camp, and
• The military received intelligence that Raul Reyes, the second-ranking commander of the FARC, was in the camp. Thus, the Colombian forces launched the operation killing 17 rebels–including Reyes–and confiscating computers and documents from his quarters
The Colombian military had previously launched similar cross-border, anti-FARC raids, provoking only minor rebukes from the Ecuadorian government. Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s initial calm deteriorated rapidly when it was discovered that the raid was neither mounted in self-defense nor a “hot pursuit” action. Instead, the operation was launched against sleeping rebels. Since then Correa and his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have called the raid “a massacre” and have engaged in a war of words with Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe.
In addition to their fervent anti-Colombia rhetoric, both nations’ leaders have deployed military battalions to their borders in a distinctive show of force that threatens to upset regional stability. The likelihood of subsequent cross-border action by Colombia in the near-term is low however, decreasing the possibility of armed conflict between the three states. Uribe, in addition, has not positioned his troops at the border, a move that displays his desire to resolve the situation. Regional power, Brazil, has condemned Colombia’s obvious violation of Ecuador’s territorial sovereignty but simultaneously has called for peaceful proceedings to quell the conflict. Chilean and Argentine Presidents Michelle Bachelet and Cristina Fernandez, respectively, have also offered to mediate the conflict.
Near-term Outlook
Tensions will remain high in the coming days, and regional relations are likely to further deteriorate. We expect Chavez will utilize the incident to attack Uribe, making any diplomatic solutions to the conflict exceedingly difficult. Additionally, Chavez sees Uribe as a puppet for US President George Bush and considers any action by the Colombian government an extension of US foreign policy in the region. The US call for a resolution has further exacerbated the conflict, as preliminary reports suggest it was US intelligence that positioned Raul Reyes specifically inside the rebel camp.
Uribe is still reeling from Chavez’s recent praise of the FARC during the hostage crisis in Colombia (Previous Report). Additional questions concerning both Chavez’s and Correa’s relationship to the FARC–allegations that they have been in open dialogue with, funded, and supported the rebel group–will further complicate a peaceful solution.
As such, in the near-term the region will likely remain tense but controlled. The course of action will be a dialogue facilitated by the leadership of the Organization of American States (OAS). There will be no immediate solution, however, as the OAS will likely send an investigatory team to assess the circumstances of the incident and confer with all parties before any diplomatic solution is considered.
While none of the regional players seem to have the appetite for war, the incident has pushed trilateral relations to a new nadir, where it will likely stay for some time. Expect continued confrontational chatter—likely anti-US in nature–from Chavez in particular. Regional stability will remain strained for the long-term.
