Highlights
– Agreement ends two months of violence
– Two years of reforms will be necessary before new elections
– Ethnic tensions will remain elevated in near-term
On February 28, 2008, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga reached a much-awaited power-sharing agreement. The agreement comes after widespread violence erupted following allegations of fraud in the December 27, 2007 presidential election (Previous Report). The agreement is the result of intense international pressure, including direct mediation by former United Nations (UN) Secretary General Kofi Annan and Tanzanian President/ African Union (AU) chief, Jakaya Kikwete.
The Damage Done
Following nearly two months of violence more than 1,500 people are dead with over 600,000 displaced. Prior to recent events Kenya has long been considered one of the most stable African countries, especially in the volatile Horn of Africa. Further, the communities in which various ethnic groups that had once lived peacefully side-by-side have since been destroyed by ethnic violence. As such, the new government will face the challenge of returning stability to Kenya and amending the system of governance to ensure future elections do not deteriorate into the violence witnessed over the past two months.
The Power-Sharing Agreement
The newly brokered power-sharing agreement will allow Kibaki to remain in the presidency and will create a prime minister post for Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Additionally, two deputy prime minister posts will be created and cabinet positions will be divided between the two parties. Parliament is expected to approve the law to create the new posts when it reconvenes on March 6, 2008. Odinga hopes the government will be in place and operational by mid-March.
Of note, Odinga has stated he believes the power deal will succeed. Furthermore, following the announcement of the deal, Mombasa and Kisumu, an ODM stronghold, saw large celebrations in the streets. The celebrations, combined with Kenyans’ desire to end the violence, will likely provide the power-sharing agreement with widespread support.
Challenges Ahead
The creation of a coalition government took two months, during which much of the country experienced significant violence and instability. As heads of state and their respective political parties, Kibaki and Odinga have a difficult road ahead as they must ensure the coalition government maintains unity.
The new government will have to address the root causes that resulted in two months of intense violence. The first issue will be constitutional, which is expected to take up to one year to complete. The primary reform will be reducing the power of the presidency, which, in large part, created the environment that resulted in the violence.
In addition to the constitutional reforms, electoral reforms will be necessary to ensure elections meet international standards of freedom and fairness. Under the current tentative time frame, new elections are scheduled to occur in two years.
Lastly, land reforms will be a crucial issue, made even more so by the displacement of approximately 600,000 Kenyans. A key focus area for the government will center on restoring multiethnic communities that were destroyed by the violence.
Regional Impact
As Kenyan leaders’ primary focus will be on the country’s internal stability, Kenya’s role as a mediator in regional issues will likely be diminished. As such, the Intergovernmental Agency for Development (IGAD), which is comprised of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, will need to increase its role in regional stability. The lead role in IGAD, which has traditionally been played by Kenya, will mostly likely be taken over by Tanzania.
Future Outlook
The signing of the power-sharing agreement is the first of many steps necessary to restore stability and remove the root causes of violence in Kenya. With reforms likely to raise tensions between the political parties, minor outbreaks of violence may occur. However, with violence having largely subsided and both political parties supporting the power-sharing agreement, a return to large-scale violence is unlikely. To this end, if reforms are completed on time and free and fair elections are held on schedule, we remain optimistic Kenya will return to the stability it once knew.
