Highlights
− Raúl Castro has replaced his brother Fidel as the President of Cuba
− Raúl’s political appointee choices suggest his desire to retain power within the Communist Party
− Expect small, subtle changes to Cuba’s economy in the mid-term
On Sunday February 24, 2008, Raúl Castro replaced his infamous brother, Fidel Castro, atop the Communist Party of Cuba and became the President of the island nation. Coinciding with his appointment, thirteen other new members were selected by Parliament to the ruling Council of State, including numerous top communist ideologues from the old guard and very few from the younger, perhaps more innovative crowd.
The move to place original revolutionaries on the Council, most notably 77-year-old Machado Ventura in the vice presidency, rather than an individual from the next generation has caused concern among international economists and politicians alike. Specifically, international community members would rather have seen a fresh face, wiling to work to implement market mechanisms into the Soviet-style economy and perhaps even affect change within the Communist regime. Instead, the appointments seem to indicate more of the same in Cuba, with economic and political reforms potentially being shelved once again.
Fidel Exits; Raúl Steps Up
The foregone conclusion that economic and political change would abound after Fidel’s retirement remains a falsity. The course of action long-wished for by the US government, and in the exiled Cuban enclaves of Miami, of the regime’s collapse and a speedy shift to democracy is unlikely. Instead, a slow transition, initiated by the introduction of modest, highly regulated capitalism may be the route chosen by the new president. Raúl has admitted time and again that he believes “structural and conceptual changes” to the economy are needed, but with his positioning of revolutionaries in leadership positions, he has symbolically, if not straightforwardly, decided that political control will remain within the Communist Party. Therefore, in the model of China or Vietnam, a Communist-run, market economy may start to take shape in Cuba (Previous Report).
Since July 2007 Raúl has waged an open debate among his advisors concerning Cuba’s ailing economy. He has consulted with senior officials from the Communist Party of China (CPC) and realizes that his continued strong economic relationship with Hugo Chávez of Venezuela is only as good as the price of oil remains high (Previous Report). Additionally, after suffering a referendum defeat in December 2007, Chavez’s presidency may be coming to a close in a few short years (Previous Report). Economic change is then, in a sense, inevitable over the long-term in Cuba, but rapid change is, again, unlikely.
Small changes are likely in the mid-term and will appear much like the so-called “Special Period” in the mid-1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simple, pragmatic economic reforms were introduced, such as the encouragement and development of tourism, telecoms, and oil exploration, as well as the introduction of the US dollar. The measures stabilized the ailing economy but were halted by Fidel in 1996 when he realized they were also undermining Communist Party control. In 2004, he reversed most of the changes and cracked down politically to re-establish full control.
Life Under Raúl
Raúl is expected to implement similar changes at a slow pace, but he must not be afraid to allow the market to create a certain level of inequality among the Cuban citizenry. The delicate balance between a capitalist economy and communism as we see in China, could be achieved in Cuba. Again, these changes would be slow in developing, not to mention difficult for the revolutionaries to swallow. Thus, there is still a high improbability that even these changes will occur in the near-term.
Additionally, it is important to note that Fidel may have retired, but he is not gone from the political game. In fact, he retains a position, becoming the first Secretary of the Communist Party. As such, he is likely to use his influence behind the scenes and converse with Raúl frequently. The new president will hardly be his brother’s puppet, but he will still respect Fidel’s advice and do nothing to compromise his brother’s standing in Cuba. The glue that has held Cuba stagnant for so long is Fidel himself. Change, therefore, will remain slow and relaxed at least until Fidel’s passing, if not for years succeeding his death.
Raúl’s presidency will likely be a step in the right direction, at least for Cuba’s economic future. Still, politically and socially, Cuba will likely remain a police state, where dissidents go to jail for speaking out against Fidel. True democratic reforms are still a long way off in Cuba. The implementation of limited economic reforms though, may be a lone bright spot on the island’s horizon.
