Highlights
• Poland must strike a delicate balance in its relations with Russia
• Negotiating the deployment of a US missile shield deployment on Polish territory has been difficult
• Poland will continue to look to the West for its security needs
There now appears to be a thaw in Polish-Russian relations culminating in the new Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk’s visit to Moscow last week. This has been the highest-level meeting between the two sides in several years as relations between the two countries have been rather frigid.
Polish and Russian histories have been intertwined for centuries in both a complex and combative matter. However, because of this historical relationship and the reality that Russia is reemerging as a major power with Poland in its region of influence, it is not surprising the current Polish government wants to improve relations with Moscow. This is more of a pragmatic than philosophical foreign policy imperative.
The proposed US missile shield deployment in Europe with a component interceptor system to be based in Poland is causing consternation in Russia, a fact that is not lost on Poland. At the same time however, Poland is looking towards the West for its future well being by joining such institutions as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and more recently the European Union (EU). Bilateral relations with the United States have also been good, although the previous Polish government was seen as more pro-Western and pro-American. Currently, Poland is trying to strike a balance in East-West relations.
Russian-Polish Relations
Russia for its part has welcomed the thaw in relations and the Foreign Ministry has publicly stated that they are encouraged by Poland’s willingness to improve bilateral relations and find constructive solutions to issues between the two sides. The purpose of Tusk’s visit was ostensibly to discuss trade, economic and humanitarian cooperation issues. Poland and Russia are major trading partners, but Russia only just recently lifted a two-year ban on Polish meat imports. Other issues of contention between both sides also include the Nord Stream gas pipeline and the Polish veto on the start of talks regarding a strategic partnership between Russia and the EU.
Tusk was disappointed that he was unable to talk Moscow out of its plans regarding the pipeline. However, the issue at the crux of the meeting was the proposed US missile shield component deployment in Poland. It appears that the new Polish government wants to engage in dialogue with Russia over this issue to demonstrate that they are not blindly following US security initiatives in Europe.
Earlier in the month, the current Polish government, (unlike the previous government last year which had agreed in principle to accept the missile interceptor system), announced that it had not officially decided on a possible deployment of the missile interceptor system on Polish soil and the Russian media was reporting that Tusk had not made any final decisions on the system.
However, it has now been reported in the US that Poland has agreed in principle to allow the interceptor system. Prime Minister Tusk has settled this issue by acknowledging that Russia has accepted Poland’s right to host the system but is not supportive of the decision.
Poland, the US and Security
The new Polish government has certainly made the US government nervous over its equivocation on this issue. Basically the Polish position is that a final decision on the issue cannot be made until all costs and risks are assessed. Poland does not believe that Iran is a direct threat currently, but acknowledges weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile concerns. The Polish Foreign Minister also expressed apprehension that political and diplomatic outlays both at home and abroad could be squandered should the US decide to shelve the program after the US Presidential elections later in the year. The larger issue is that Poland wants to develop a deeper security relationship with the US that protects its interests as well. Poland has also suggested that not only is it part of NATO, but it should also be able to host a NATO base as well.
Outlook
While Polish-Russian relations are improving, and at first glance it appears that Poland may be playing Russia off the US, it is far more likely that the Polish government is simply adopting a more pragmatic and guarded approach to dealing with Russia.
Poland remains careful with the US, but will continue to look to the US and the West for its future security needs. Russia in turn will continue to engage Poland with both a carrot and stick approach.
