Highlights
• The Pakistani government appears ready for dialogue with militants
• The ceasefire may allow the Taliban to prepare for its annual spring offensive
• Ceasefire is unlikely to maintain beyond the upcoming February 18th election
Tehrik-e-Taliban, an umbrella group coordinating militant activity in Pakistan, recently declared a truce in the South Waziristan region and claims it is willing to enter peace talks with the government of Pakistan.
Baitullah Mehsud, leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban—with links to al-Qaeda and the Taliban—has been accused by the Pakistan government of planning and perpetrating the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, as well as several recent bombings throughout Pakistan. Mehsud appears to be amassing more influence in the tribal regions; however, he has had difficulty successfully uniting the many tribes in the past.
Skepticism
The Pakistani government has not confirmed the truce, however Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz admitted that the national leadership was ready for dialogue with the militants. Ironically, the announcement of a ceasefire came only days before the capture of Mansoor Dadullah, a senior Taliban commander, who reportedly held secret talks with two Western diplomats last year. Afghan President Hamid Karzai insisted the negotiations were unauthorized and expelled the two Europeans in December 2007.
The ceasefire is not only applicable to North and South Waziristan, but to all seven agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Swat Valley. In recent months, the insurgency has spread throughout the FATA. As such, for the near-term, a pause in attacks is beneficial for the Pakistani government especially with the upcoming February 18th parliamentary elections.
However, the United States has signaled its disapproval of a ceasefire between the Pakistani government and pro-Taliban militants. A ceasefire in North Waziristan in September 2006 led to the Taliban’s strongest showing in Afghanistan since its 2001 ouster from the country and allowed militants to regroup and strengthen during the ensuing months.
The Afghan Taliban may see the ceasefire as an ideal opportunity to prepare for its annual spring offensive, as they rely heavily on the Pakistan border areas for manpower and supplies.
Ceasefire In The Works
In recent months, fighting between militants and the Pakistani military has intensified in the tribal regions. The militants have grown bolder and now directly attack military camps in the FATA. The Pakistani military has conducted several special operations missions in the region, including a recent mission to capture Mehsud, which resulted in the loss of several men. As a result, the Pakistani military has unleashed numerous aerial assaults, prompting the intervention of local tribal elders to stop the bombings.
The constant fighting has largely reached a stalemate, prompting both sides to accept a ceasefire. Since the ceasefire was declared, fighting in Waziristan has subsequently decreased. However, it is unclear whether it is because of the ceasefire or the recent heavy snowfall and frigid temperatures plaguing the region.
Militant spokesman Maulvi Mohammed Umar recently told BBC News that the truce was announced because the Pakistani government had abandoned positions and pulled back their camps in the tribal belt along the Afghan border and Swat region, a key militant demand. This will certainly give space to both sides, but at the same time could give the militants time to regroup and prepare for new attacks against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces operating in Afghanistan and security forces in Pakistan.
While violence has largely ceased in Waziristan, the same cannot be said in other parts of Pakistan. On February 9, 2008 a suicide bomber struck an election rally in northwestern Pakistan killing 20 . On February 11, a suicide attacker rammed a car into an election candidate’s convoy . Later that same day, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Afghanistan was kidnapped in the Khyber Tribal agency close to the Afghan border.
A Look Ahead
The latest ceasefire will not likely stop the militants from launching attacks in the tribal regions and other parts of Pakistan. The ceasefire declared in the FATA and Swat Valley may reduce the level of violence in other parts of Pakistan in the near-term, but could be devastating in the long-term if the militants take advantage by regrouping, rearming, and reorganizing.
