Highlights
− Rebel alliance attack on capital poses greatest threat yet to President Deby’s 18-year rule
− Separate rebel attack in eastern Chad shows increased coordination between rebel groups and poses significant challenge for the Chadian army
− Fighting will result in further instability within Chad as well as regionally
On February 1, 2008 Chadian rebels advanced on the capital, N’Djamena. A previous attempt by rebels to overthrow the government of Chadian President Indriss Deby failed in April 2006. The alliance between the United Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD), Assembly of Forces for Change (RFC), and UFDD-Fondamentale—a splinter group of UFDD—has allowed for increased capabilities and planning. Currently, over 2,000 rebels are involved in the fighting in and around N’Djamena.
In addition to increased capabilities, the rebels surprised the Chadian Army by attacking the capital, located in the southwest part of the country near the Nigerian border, rather than launching an attack in the eastern part of the country along the Sudanese border where the rebels are based. Because the army was unprepared for an attack on N’Djamena, the rebels were able to cross more than 1,000km (620 miles) from their base in the eastern part of the country to the capital with little interference from the army over a three-day period. As a result of the surprise, the rebels were able to enter the capital with little resistance.
Once at the capital, heavy fighting broke out between rebel forces and the army. The rebels were able to eventually reach the presidential palace where President Deby is believed to be located. On February 3, 2008 rebels withdrew from the city to regroup and allow citizens to leave the city, however rebels launched another attack against N’Djeman on February 4th. Casualties are expected to be high as heavy fighting continues.
Eastern Front Ignites
The Front for the Salvation of the Republic (FSR) seized control of the eastern town of Adre, along the border with the Darfur region of Sudan. While the FSR, based in southeastern Chad, is not part of the rebel alliance fighting in the capital, a FSR spokesperson said the FSR was, “acting in coordination with the rebels in N’Djamena.” Adre is an important humanitarian hub with 420,000 refugees located in camps surrounding the town.
The European Union’s (EU) peacekeeping mission, EUFOR, is planning on being based in Adre. There are currently conflicting reports from rebels and the government over who currently has control over the town. However, the FSR fighting highlights the increased cooperation between rebel forces and their ability to win battles against the better equipped Chadian army.
Sudanese Involvement
The timing of the rebels assault on N’Djamena coincides with a planned deployment of EUFOR, despite previous threats to attack EUFOR by Chadian rebel groups (Previous Report). Sudan, who provides support for the anti-Deby rebels, is also opposed to EUFOR. The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Sudan wants to avoid effective peacekeeping forces from being stationed in Darfur and the surrounding regions so that it can continue to wage its crackdown on rebel groups operating in Darfur without interference. Further complicating the situation, Chad provides support to Darfur rebel groups, including the most powerful group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The attacks on N’Djamena and Adre, while still ongoing, have already succeeded in the secondary goal of delaying the deployment of EUFOR.
Tensions have risen between Sudan and Chad in the past two months, with Chad’s air force bombing anti-Deby rebels in Sudanese territory (Previous Report) in December 2007 and January 2008. The rebel attack on N’Djamena has further increased tensions. Chadian General Mahamat Ali Abdallah Nassour accused Sudanese ground and air forces of fighting alongside FSR rebels in the attack on Adre. Nassour described the attack as “a declaration of war” by Sudan. If President Deby is able to prevent the rebels from capturing N’Djamena and overthrowing his government, direct hostilities between Chad and Sudan could occur.
EU Peacekeeping Force Delayed
The Chadian rebels have been opposed to EUFOR since it was originally announced. The rebels oppose the force because over half the troops comprising EUFOR are French. France supports President Deby and has provided intelligence about rebel positions in recent months. French forces were also involved in defeating the rebel forces in the April 2006 assault on N’Djamena.
The rebels are also opposed to EUFOR because by providing security along the border with Darfur, EUFOR would allow Chadian military forces currently providing security in the area to be used in fighting the rebels.
The status of EUFOR is currently unclear. The EU’s current position is that the deployment has been delayed for several days so as to reassess the changing security situation. Ongoing hostilities will likely further delay the deployment of EUFOR. If the rebels succeed in overthrowing President Deby, it is unlikely they would support the deployment of EUFOR.
International Response
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed a resolution on February 4, 2008 condemning the rebel assault and authorizing countries to assist Deby’s government. While France helped defeat the April 2006 assault on N’Djamena, thus far French troops have only assisted in evacuating civilians from the city. With 1,800 soldiers, including special forces, and fighter jets stationed in Chad, should France decide to fight alongside the Chadian army, it would significantly decrease the rebels’ chances of overthrowing Deby’s government.
While it is unclear why France has thus far remained neutral, it is likely an attempt to improve the chances of success for EUFOR. By not helping President Deby, the rebels may no longer view the French soldiers comprising EUFOR as biased. France might also believe that Deby will be overthrown and by declaring neutrality it might help convince the rebels to allow EUFOR to be deployed at a future date. Furthermore, since taking office in May 2007 French president Nicolas Sarkozy has stated he intends to end France’s support of corrupt and undemocratic African leaders.
Regional Impact
The fighting in Chad will have a significant affect on the region. Over 15,000 people have already crossed the border into Cameroon seeking to escape the violence. The nongovernmental organization (NGO) workers and other foreign nationals evacuated from N’Djamena by French forces were transported to Cameroon and Gabon. Nigeria has sent troops to secure its border with Chad and to also provide humanitarian aid.
The fighting will worsen conditions in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Darfur. Relief agencies working in the region have previously used Chad as a base to provide aid to the millions of refugees in Darfur and bordering areas of CAR and Chad. The fighting in Adre will adversely affect the refugees in the surrounding camps.
Outlook
The renewed fighting on February 4, 2008 refutes the Chadian army’s claims of defeating the rebels. The ultimate deciding factor in whether President Deby remains in power will likely be France’s decision on whether to assist the Chadian army or remain neutral.
Without French support, it is likely the rebels will be able to capture N’Djamena and overthrow Deby’s regime. However, the Chadian army’s counteroffensive on February 3rd demonstrated the army has maintained the capability to counterattack rebels. With superior firepower, including tanks and helicopter gunships, the army has a technical advantage. However, media reports indicate the rebels are well armed and have succeeded in disabling several tanks.
The situation in Chad will remain unstable. If Deby is able to hold onto power, he will likely launch a counterattack on rebel forces. While the rebel attack has been described as a “declaration of war” by Sudan, Chad’s army is far inferior to Sudan’s, which has been built up in recent years by increased oil revenues and closer ties with China. A direct attack on Sudan would further weaken Deby’s regime as increased attacks by Sudanese forces coordinated with rebel attacks would likely be enough to defeat the rebels. As such, it is unlikely Chad will directly attack Sudan. Bombings such as those seen in December and January are most likely.
With increased unity and operational capabilities since 2006 due to increased support from Sudan, the rebels are likely to succeed in overthrowing Deby’s regime. A rebel victory will further increase instability. The country is comprised of various ethnic groups and the removal of President Deby would lead to a power struggle, likely including armed hostilities between the various groups. Further complicating the situation is Chad’s oil industry, which began in 2003. Oil revenues would give further incentive for rival groups to gain control of the government. Without a central government supported by France, there is the possibility the country could experience prolonged instability and become a failed state such as Somalia.
