Highlights
− Transatlantic tensions are rising over NATO’s mission in Afghanistan
− Canada is under political pressure to withdraw forces from the troubled south
− Germany and France are unlikely to contribute more troops as requested
Growing discontent between North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members over the war in Afghanistan has caused a number of problems, at a time when the coalition is trying to deal with a resurging Taliban threat.
Several NATO coalition members, primarily countries that are taking the brunt of the fighting in Afghanistan’s restless southern provinces, are beginning to show frustration with other NATO members who refuse to deploy forces to the troubled areas. This has largely split the organization and threatens to further erode support for the war in Afghanistan.
Coalition Concerns
Canada, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States are largely leading the charge in demanding other NATO members share the brunt of the fighting. On January 31, 2008 in a meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Stephen Harper increased pressure on his NATO allies by threatening to end his country’s military mission in Afghanistan unless other coalition members assume a greater role in the dangerous south.
Canada currently has 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, mainly located in Kandahar province where the Taliban is growing in strength. With the rising violence, Canadians are growing increasingly weary over the war, which has already claimed the lives of 78 Canadian soldiers and one diplomat. PM Harper is under pressure to withdraw troops, as opposition parties are threatening to bring down his minority government. Thus far, the conservative Prime Minister staunchly supports the war, but if certain NATO members do not take a more assertive role in the conflict, Harper will have little choice but to withdraw Canadian forces from the south.
US Influence
Agreeing with Canada, US Department of Defense officials have written a strongly-worded letter to Germany and other NATO members urging them to send combat troops to the dangerous areas in southern Afghanistan to assist Canadian, American, Dutch, and British forces operating in the region. Germany and France are the two NATO countries that are under pressure to play a larger military role in Afghanistan.
Thus far, Germany has committed 3,100 troops to Afghanistan, but has mainly focused on reconstruction efforts in the relatively calm northern regions. France, with about 1,600 soldiers committed, are mostly deployed to the capital of Kabul and in the north as part of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. Despite the request for larger troop commitments, Germany and France are unlikely to increase force levels in the near-term. Germany has rejected the urgent call from the US for more combat troops and cites a parliamentary mandate until October 2008 that rules out stationing soldiers in the turbulent south.
NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, who has recently held talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, said that the French leader did not give any assurances, but claimed the possibility France will take a greater responsibility in Afghanistan. The NATO chief is urging NATO members to send more troops as a surge is necessary in stabilizing Afghanistan and countering the resurging Taliban.
Looking To The Future
It is becoming clear that transatlantic tensions are on the rise over NATO’s mission in Afghanistan. Germany and France are unlikely to send additional forces to Afghanistan or relocate into dangerous areas, as both the citizens and politicians largely remain weary of their countries’ commitment to the conflict.
On February 7th and 8th, NATO defense ministers are to conduct an informal meeting in Vilnius to discuss Afghanistan. The meeting will be significant as the US, Canada, and Great Britain urge other members to commit more to the conflict. Commanders in Afghanistan have been calling for around 7,500 extra troops to be deployed to the region immediately.
All eyes will be on Canada, as PM Harper struggles to maintain support for the war as attacks against Canadian troops are on the rise. Pressure from opposition parties and Canadian citizens will force Harper to demand a greater role from other NATO members and if unsuccessful, we may see a gradual withdraw of Canadian troops from the troubled south. The US and Great Britain are trying to avoid this scenario by joining the fight in urging other members to assume greater responsibility.
The United States is deploying an extra 3,200 troops this month. However, they are only scheduled to deploy for seven months, which will not satisfy Canadian demands for more long-term backing.
In the near-term, the United States, Canada, Great Britain, and Netherlands will be largely unsuccessful in getting other NATO members to assume greater responsibility. This will place further pressure on the governments of these nations and increase the likelihood of failure in Afghanistan. To achieve success, NATO must not only deploy more forces, but also radically change many of its strategies.
