Highlights:
– The Lebanese political standoff has led to increased sectarian-motivated violence
– January 27, 2008 riots ended in the deaths of six opposition supporters and raised questions concerning the neutrality of the Army
– The Army’s findings will greatly determine the future stability of Lebanon
The mood in Lebanon has intensified in recent weeks beginning with bomb attacks targeting a US Embassy vehicle, the vehicle of the director of al-Anbaa (an Arabic newspaper) , and culminating in the assassination of Chief Intelligence Officer Captain Wisam Eid —whose assassination led to a large scale demonstration in his hometown of Deir Ammar, Beirut. These attacks and the opposition’s unwillingness to accept the Arab League proposed solution to Lebanon’s presidential crisis stoked sectarian tension on the street.
Before January 27, 2008, sectarian violence existed on a small scale taking the form of spontaneous fistfights and violent arguments and had little impact on the ongoing political standoff. However, the riots on January 27th in Beirut could be a game changer for Lebanon .
Riots in Beirut
The demonstrations on January 27, 2008 began peacefully, as Shia citizens in Beirut’s southern Suburbs, Tripoli, and Sidon protested against electricity rationing and inflation. However, violence broke out after an Amal member was shot in Mar Mikhael, Beirut when the army intervened to disperse a crowd of demonstrators. The shooting triggered rioting with young male demonstrators throwing rocks and burning tires and some cars. The army acted to prevent the rioters from entering Sunni and Christian neighborhoods, but eyewitness reports vary as to what happened next. Some reports indicate that army officers fired warning shots in the air to disperse the crowd. Other witnesses reported that army officers returned fire from the crowd. And some said that shots were fired from sniper positions on nearby rooftops.
In the end, six demonstrators were killed and twenty-nine wounded from the opposition groups Amal and Hizballah. Lebanese Army Chief and Presidential nominee Michel Suleiman and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri agreed that the army would perform a “swift and serious” investigation into the shootings.
Neutrality of the Army in Doubt
Despite the targeting of two Army officials in the last month, the neutrality of the Army was not in question until now, but a loss of confidence in the Army would complete the restoration of Lebanon to pre-Civil War political conditions.
The scene that unfolded as a result of the January 27, 2008 riots reminded many in Lebanon of the beginning of the Civil War. Roadblocks and checkpoints were setup between Sunni, Shia, and Christian neighborhoods, a curfew was instituted for the first time in over ten years, and the reputation of the Army was in question.
Off the record, many military officials are pointing to foreign intelligence intervention as the cause of the riots; with some saying they recognized Syrian intelligence collaborators in the crowd. Nonetheless, the Army’s innocence in the shootings must be definitively proved or the opposition will likely use the killings to incite its followers against the Army.
A Look Forward
The political standoff in Lebanon has reached a fork in the road. The two previous attacks against Lebanese Army officials did not achieve their ultimate objective—loss of neutrality in the Army—but the January 27th riots may have finished the job.
Even if the Army can offer definitive proof that its officers did not shoot the demonstrators in cold blood, the majority of the opposition will not trust the Army’s evidence unless Hizballah leader Hassan Nasarallah approves the Army’s findings. However, Nasarallah will not likely quiet the anger of his masses unless he stands to gain politically.
The Sinoria government will not bargain a veto in the cabinet in exchange for Nasarallah’s seal of approval on the Army’s investigation. Speaker Berri will likely back the Army’s findings and promote a just, legal solution, but his sway with Nasarallah is limited. If confidence in the Army is lost, a violent, rocky road lies ahead for Lebanon and its people.
