Highlights:
− The increasing number of terror threats in recent weeks can be attributed to Republic Day
− India has largely become a paranoid state issuing nationwide terror alerts on vague and questionable intelligence tip-offs
− India will not change its strategy regarding terror warnings in the near-term
In recent months, the Indian government has issued an unusually high number of terror warnings, prompting a constant fluctuation in the nation’s terror threat level. The fluctuation is having an impact on Indians who are attempting to live their lives in a state of normalcy.
With increased frisking and more security check points established at public places, including railway stations, crowded markets, courts, temples, and the Delhi metro, India’s citizens are finding it more difficult to go about their daily lives.
Most of the time, the threats turn out to be vague and non-credible. However, according to a senior official from Delhi’s Police’s special cell, India’s security agencies cannot afford to take even one terror warning casually. The senior official stated that on average, out of one hundred threats, only one has merit. However, due to the heightened response to any potential threat, the government is prompted to release terror warnings all over the country once a threat is received.
Republic Day
The increasing number of terror threats in recent weeks can be attributed to India’s Republic Day, which occurred on January 26, 2008. The Republic Day of India is a national holiday to mark the adoption of the Constitution of India and the transition from a British dominion to a republic on January 26, 1950.
Special guests of the Republic Day parade in Delhi included India’s President Pratibha Patil and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, making Delhi an attractive target by the multiple extremist groups that pose a threat to India.
India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) warned Delhi Police and other security agencies of a possible strike from terror groups including, Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT) and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It is not uncommon for these two terrorist groups to issue vague threats and warnings against the Indian government, especially on such an important Indian holiday. However, the Indian government took the threats seriously and created a largely impregnable security shield for the Republic Day parade and accompanying celebrations.
Clear and Present Danger
Despite the large number of warnings and threats in India that end up being false or simply scare tactics, India does face a serious threat from a wide range of extremist groups.
In the Northern part of the country, India faces a severe threat from Maoists, who have been violent and disruptive in several of India’s states. Several of the threats are also issued as a result of terrorist and insurgent groups operating in the country’s Northeast, near Assam, including the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA). On top of the multiple Islamic and insurgent groups issuing threats for Republic Day, ULFA in particular, has been to blame for some of the recent increased security measures. In December 2007, the militant group issued a hijacking threat, which led to all airports in West Bengal and North-east India to be placed on high alert.
The ULFA plot involved the hijacking of an airliner in an attempt to free ULFA militants that were being held in Indian jails. While the ULFA threat was vague, it prompted the Indian government to issue a red alert at four different airports located in the Northeast, as well as in Hyderabad, Bangalore, and international airports such as in Amritsar. The ULFA hijack threat came at a time when airports all over the country were receiving a large number of vague terror threats, including Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA). Because of this, Indian authorities have made it a priority to further increase security at most major airports.
Paranoia and Reality
The issuing of so many terror alerts has certainly taken a toll on the Indian public in several ways. It has disrupted the daily lives of the citizens and has largely created a sense of fear, especially in the city of Delhi. It is not uncommon for Delhi Police or other high profile cities to urge all citizens, including shopkeepers, security guards, auto rickshaw drivers, bus drivers, parking lot attendants, and conductors to keep vigilant for suspicious looking people and objects.
However, despite India’s increased attractiveness to extremist groups, the country has largely become a paranoid state issuing nationwide terror alerts on vague and questionable intelligence. But, the mentality of the senior official from Delhi’s Police’s special cell has become dominant in the country’s security establishment. The Indian government and security agencies do not want to take the chance in ignoring just one of these terror threats, as the consequences could ultimately lead to an attack.
We can largely attribute the most recent increase in terror warnings to Republic Day, as the government regularly issues advisories to states when the holiday approaches. The same can also be said about Independence Day and other major religious festivals. India is unlikely to change its strategy when dealing with terror warnings, continuing to enhance security at vital government and civilian installations as threats intensify.
