Highlights
– Asia will face a slowing of economic growth; however, the ‘bubble’ will not burst in China
– Political tensions and insurgencies will likely remain the same with moderate improvements in the Koreas and the Philippines
– Environmental threats will worsen, specifically in Bangladesh and China
As many Asian countries continue to become prominent figures on the international stage, the region as a whole will face the repercussions of rapid change and development. Overall, economic growth will slow as investors become more cautious, civil unrest will increase as the gap between the rich and poor widens, many nations will continue to battle terrorism, and global warming will pose a greater challenge. These issues will strain state stability throughout Asia; however, the 2008 Olympics in Beijing will highlight the growing dominance of the Chinese influence felt throughout the world.
Economic Slow Down
Asian countries, especially China, will experience a slowing of economic growth in 2008 due to the volatility of global financial markets and high oil and commodity prices. The over 50 percent rise in the price of pork in 2007, along with changing food preferences will raise costs for normally cheap commodities in 2008. Fears of the bubble bursting will remain; however, China’s economic growth will stay above ten percent.
China will continue to invest heavily in Africa, largely ignoring human rights violations in Sudan, as its need for fuel grows exponentially. By the end of 2008 China will have to compete with a growing number of Asian nations who are also experiencing an increasing demand for oil. As such, India will become China’s largest competitor (Previous Report).
Regional Tensions Will Not Be Resolved
Thailand will continue to experience political uncertainty, as the newly elected government remains weak and disconnected. While King Bhumibol Adulyadej remains alive, another coup will not be likely. In the event that the King dies or falls ill in 2008, the military will again contemplate another coup to wrest control from the newly created People’s Power Party, loyal to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (Previous Report).
Former military personnel will attempt another coup in the Philippines before the end of 2008. President Arroyo will face continued charges of corruption; however, she will remain in control of the government.
Burma’s military rulers will largely ignore international criticism of its oppressive regime. Occasional statements of progress towards democracy will be made to appease their few key allies, such as China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Although no concrete steps will be taken, this will satisfy countries that do not wish to become involved in the internal politics of another nation.
Activists from around the world will use the 2008 Beijing Olympics to gain international attention for the environment, Tibet, China’s foreign policy and its relationship with Taiwan. Olympic fans will largely ignore the protesters and the high security throughout Beijing will prevent any violent outbreaks.
South Korea’s new President, Lee Myung-bak, will initially take a firmer stance with North Korea. North Korea will once again signal irritation through passive tactics such as canceled meetings and slowing the disablement of the nuclear complex at Yongbyon. However, by the end of 2008, North Korea will near completion of the disablement process and the United States will again imply future steps of improving ties between the two countries, such as taking North Korea off the list of terrorists.
Insurgencies Will Endure, But Not Grow
The Philippines will make considerable gains against terrorists in 2008; however, terrorism will remain a threat to national security. After many disagreements and road blocks, a final peace agreement will be signed by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine government in late 2008, which will subsequently lead to splinter groups who reject specific details of the agreement (Previous Report). Violent attacks by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the New People’s Army (NPA) will be sporadic but ever-present throughout 2008.
The radical Muslim insurgency in Thailand will continue due to the weak effort by the government to quell the sporadic attacks in the south.
The conflict between Sri Lankan forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will intensify to near-civil war status. In late 2007 both sides effectively dismissed any ideas of future peace talks and pledged to continue attacks until one side was wiped out; this will not change in 2008 (Previous Report). LTTE rebels will target more soft targets in locations important to the Sri Lankan government, including the capital city of Colombo.
Environmental Threats Will Come Into Focus
The bird flu will not turn into a pandemic; however, it will continue to affect southeast Asian countries with dense populations whose people live in close contact with poultry, such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and China. Scientists will make moderate progress on a vaccine for the bird flu in 2008, but there will be two or three significant outbreaks throughout the year. Human to human transmission of the H5N1 virus will remain a concern.
In 2008 Bangladesh will face unprecedented flooding and devastation due to global warming. Water levels will continue to rise, forcing an already dense population in the delta country to move inland, further damaging the economy of the impoverished nation.
As a result of the publicity of the Beijing Olympics, China will face unprecedented scrutiny of the high levels of air and water pollution produced by its industrializing population. As in the past, the Chinese Communist Party will make a great show of implementing ‘environment-friendly’ measures, specifically in Olympic venues and transportation throughout Beijing (Previous Report). However, the rest of the country will continue to produce high levels of harmful gases.
