Highlights
– During airline flight, Federal Flight Deck Officer detects possible pre-operational plot
– Finding coincides with previous TSA warning of possible security checkpoint dry runs
– Terror attack on airline industry would severely damage US economy
In mid November 2007, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) suspicious incidents report was leaked to the press. The report detailed highly suspicious behavior exhibited by several passengers on board a domestic flight from Washington DC to Milwaukee in October 2007. During the flight, crewmembers notified an armed Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) flying on non-mission status that four passengers were exhibiting signs of suspicious behavior.
Although the TSA report is one of hundreds documenting suspicious behavior onboard flights, the highly suspicious and pre-operational nature of this particular event is a reminder that the airline industry will remain a top priority target for terrorists.
Unusual Behavior
Reported suspicious behavior during the flight included,
– One passenger, who was reportedly visiting the lavatory multiple times ignored a crewmember’s verbal orders to take his seat.
– The FFDO reportedly sat near the first suspect, but then immediately noticed two more suspects entering each lavatory. After one suspect exited the left lavatory, the FFDO entered and noticed that the mirror latch was not properly connected and was likely tampered with.
– After exiting the left lavatory, the FFDO noticed a fourth suspect waiting in line for the lavatories. The right lavatory was open and the FFDO told the suspect that the right lavatory was free to use. However, the suspect refused at first to enter the lavatory stating it was “not clean.” With encouragement from the FFDO, the suspect reluctantly entered the right lavatory and remained there for a significant period of time.
The fourth suspect’s initial rejection of the open door on the right indicates a connection with the left lavatory, the other three suspicious individuals, and the partially dismantled mirror. If this was a practice run for a larger future operation, these findings corroborate the continued terror threat facing the US airline industry.
Security Checkpoint Practice Runs
TSA first warned law enforcement of possible security dry runs during the summer 2007. Since 2006, TSA agents have detected four unusual items in carry on luggage at security checkpoints. The discoveries highlighted a possibility that terrorists may be testing to see if objects that simulate physical characteristics of bomb parts could pass through checkpoints. For example, TSA security has confiscated a bag full of wires, a possible initiator, electrical switch and two blocks of cheese.
Attack Would Devastate Airline Industry
According to a study by researchers at the University of Southern California, a terrorist attack committed against a passenger airplane would likely cost US airlines anywhere from US$200 billion to $420 billion. The study also theorized that 95 percent of the economic damage inflicted would occur in any possible post-shutdown period (Source).
Additionally, the study theorized that if the next attack came from a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS), or a shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missile, it would likely be more difficult for the government to restore the public’s confidence. As a result of this possibility in the long-term, researchers recommended that the airline industry invest in countermeasures for the entire US commercial airline fleet. Although countermeasure installments would cost anywhere from $10 billion to $100 billion, this cost, the researchers claim, would be far less than the industry would suffer after an attack.
Airline Industry Remains Top Target
In the long-term, terrorists will likely continue to target the airline industry in hopes of mimicking the success of the September 11, 2001, attacks. Any possible attack would likely result in mass casualties and would impact the US economy.