Highlights
– Tight race in ruling party ANR’s primary
– Paraguay still considered among world’s most corrupt
– Blanca Ovelar may be ANR’s best hope to retain power
Blanca Ovelar currently holds a minimal lead in the ruling party’s race for presidential nomination. With over 90 percent of the primary votes counted, Ovelar, currently an education minister, has a narrow 45.3 to 44.2 percent lead over the current Vice President Luis Castiglioni. Two other candidates trail considerably.
If she is victorious and becomes the Asociación Nacional Republicana (ANR; also known as the Colorado Party) candidate for president, she will automatically become a front-runner for the upcoming April 2008 presidential vote as the ANR has ruled in Paraguay without interruption since 1947. This would put Ovelar in a position to become the latest addition to a growing trend in Latin American politics—the election of a woman leader.
The Build-Up
According to a poll by Equipos Mori, only one in five Paraguayans are content with the job performance of current President Nicanor Duarte. That means that over 60 percent of those polled were dissatisfied with his work. Duarte, and the ANR, won the office in 2003 on a platform of corruption reform and poverty reduction. Since that time, corruption has continued unabated and extreme poverty has remained the nation’s main problem.
This year, Paraguay tied for 138 out of 175 on the 2007 Transparency International Corruption Index, remaining in the bottom quarter of countries worldwide and the fourth worst nation in Latin America for perceived corruption.
In November 2007, the United Nations (UN) Committee of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights speculated that 42 percent of Paraguayans (2.52 million people) live in poverty with almost 21 percent of the population (1.26 million people) currently suffering from extreme poverty. In a stronger allegation, the UN committee suggested that the Paraguayan government has been hiding the existence of those living in extreme poverty, which has added to Paraguay’s distinction as one of the top nations violating human rights in the world.
With President Duarte’s popularity decreasing, the ANR is searching for a candidate that will allow the ruling party to stay in power into the next decade.
A New Candidate
There is fear among the ruling party that nationwide support for the ANR is waning. In fact another recent Equipos Mori poll showed the ANR candidate ranking third in mock elections, the front-runner being Lino Oviedo, the founder of the National Union of Ethical Citizens (UNACE) party. Current Vice President, Luis Castiglioni, would be a strong candidate for the ANR, but some fear that he will be too closely related to Duarte and not supported in national elections. Thus, as demonstrated by the lead in the primary election, ANR supporters may have turned to Blanca Ovelar as their candidate for president.
Ruling parties have quickly discovered that women are an effective way to appear more modern and less corrupt, as in Chile’s electing of Michelle Bachelet and Argentina’s election of Christina Fernandez. Paraguay’s ANR, which is concerned about a lack of credibility in the upcoming April 2008 elections, may have turned to a candidate that provides a different image. Ovelar’s warmth, and more people-friendly, task-oriented leadership style, is perceived as less corrupt.
Primary Ahead
However, the final tally has not occurred and the primary is still undecided. Either candidate from the ANR may become a front-runner in the April 2008 presidential election, by virtue of its historic power hold, however current national sentiment lies outside the ANR entirely. It is sensible that Ovelar may give the ANR a better chance at continuing their dominance at the polls in April, as Castiglioni’s perceived connection to Duarte will likely cloud its political clout.
Nevertheless, either candidate will need to appeal to Paraguayans who are skeptical of the corrupt ANR-led government that has not fulfilled campaign promises, and instead has added to political corruption and extreme poverty levels.
Blanca Ovelar may be the best candidate for the ANR, but, according to Paraguayans, the best candidate for Paraguay may ultimately come from another party.