Highlights
– MEND calls for unity among rebels
– MEND threatens to expand area of operations throughout Nigeria
– Increased militant attacks expected through 2008
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) recently urged various rebel groups operating in the Niger Delta to unite in order to increase their overall ability to affect the oil companies operating in the region. The December 17, 2007, statement is the latest example of MEND’s return to militancy after a brief cease-fire intended to allow the government to negotiate with rebels. The group is hoping to organize other rebel groups in order to launch an intensified militant campaign to begin in 2008.
The renewed militant campaign is reflective of MEND and other rebel groups growing dissatisfaction with the Nigerian government’s negotiation efforts. The rebels are seeking greater percentages of oil wealth, as well as compensation for the environmental damage done by the oil companies.
Since 2006, MEND and other rebel groups have caused oil output to drop by approximately 20 percent as a result of kidnappings, attacks, and bombings throughout the oil-rich Niger Delta region. Various peace negotiations by the government have failed to reach an agreement between the militants and the government, and end any of the ongoing violence.
Expansion of Areas of Operations
On November 15, 2007, MEND sent an email to journalists warning it was preparing to expand its area of operations. Previously, MEND has confined its operation to the Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta states. The email stated that MEND intends to target major bridges, infrastructure, and Nigerian military sites.
The warning followed two attacks on November 12 and 13, 2007, blamed on MEND militants. The November 12th attack occurred in the southern Nigerian state of Akwa Ibom, two states south of Rivers state. Sixty MEND militants were involved in the attack in which MEND stole two heavy machine guns and a navy boat and blew up a police boat.
On November 13th, MEND militants launched an attack 50 miles further south of Akwa Ibom in Bakassi, Cameroon. During the attack, 21 Cameroonian soldiers and 10 militants were killed. This was the first attack outside of Nigeria’s borders that MEND is believed to be responsible for. Of note, sovereignty over the Bakassi peninsula was long disputed between Nigeria and Cameroon until the International Court of Justice ruled in favor of Cameroon. As such, the area will likely remain a target of any MEND unified attacks.
Increased Militant Activity Expected in 2008
The mid-November 2007 MEND attacks are evidence of MEND’s intentions to expand its operating area. Despite ongoing efforts by Nigerian security forces, MEND remains heavily armed and capable of launching attacks at its own discretion. Future attacks against Nigeria’s infrastructure could have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy. The 20 percent decrease in oil output has already cost the government billions of dollars. If MEND attacks create instability throughout the country, foreign companies operating there will likely scale back or even cease operations until the security situation improves.
The December 17, 2007 statement calling for rebel factions to unite, coupled with the government’s failure in its first 8 months in power to reach any peace agreements with the rebels, indicates 2008 will be another year of mayhem in the Niger Delta.
While MEND has yet to return to the frequency of attacks leading up to and after the April 2007 presidential elections, it maintains the capability to do so at its own discretion. As militant groups become increasingly disillusioned with the government led by President Umaru Yar’Ardua, the intensity and frequency of attacks will increase. Further attacks will continue to affect the oil output and Nigeria’s overall economy.
