Highlights
– The Congolese army achieved initial success in operations against General Lauren Nkunda’s rebel forces
– Due to its poor fighting quality, the Congolese army fell back into disarray following a rebel counter attack
– The presence of UN forces will likely stem the Congolese retreat, but will leave President Joseph Kabila’s government seriously weakened
After months of planning, forces from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) renewed its fight with General Lauren Nkunda’s rebel forces on December 5, 2007. After taking the rebels by surprise, the Congolese army broke into a rebel stronghold and captured the town of Mushake. Congo President Joseph Kabila announced in his annual state of the nation address that victory was near and that the uprising would be defeated “whatever the cost.”
With the Congolese army backed by the United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC), it appeared that the rebel army was on the verge of defeat. However, on December 11, 2007, the rebels regrouped and pushed the numerically superior Congolese army out of Mushake and reclaimed its lost territory.
As such, we believe a continued escalation of violence will occur in the near-term as rebel and Congolese military forces engage in additional battles.
Origins
From 1999 to 2003, the DR Congo was involved in a violent civil war. While violence continued in eastern DR Congo, a cease-fire and elections in 2006 eased the political and military situation. Rebel armies soon surrendered their weapons, including Jean-Pierre Bemba’s Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) in March 2007. However, General Nkunda continued to fight after an October 15, 2007, deadline to integrate into the regular Congolese army. Nkunda claims to defend DR Congo’s Tutsi population against Rwandan Hutu rebels who have lived in eastern DR Congo since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
The strategically vital Nord-Kivu province has long been Nkunda’s stronghold, and his headquarters in the town of Mushake is only about 60 kilometers from the regional capital of Goma. MONUC forces, however, protect the road into Goma, which greatly complicates the fluid military situation
The Forces
The Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) is estimated to consist of 25,000 soldiers and possess a few tanks, most likely Chinese-made Type 59 and Russian-made T-55 tanks. Though numerically superior, observers report that FARDC forces have often fought poorly.
While information is scarce on his rebel forces, experts believe that General Nkunda’s rebel army consists of 4,000-8,000 well-armed soldiers. However, to make up for his lack of manpower, Nkunda relies on his 14 years of experience fighting in DR Congo and Rwanda.
The most powerful force in the region is MONUC. The UN force consists of an estimated 15,000 soldiers. Its main mission, however, is humanitarian. MONUC administers camps around the towns of Kirolirwe and Kitchanga, which house an estimated 32,000 Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP). However, due to the recent rebel counter offensive, the chance of violence between MONUC and Nkunda’s forces has increased, as the UN force protects the road into the regional capital of Goma.
Outlook
The current situation will remain very fluid, and according to a report issued on December 12, 2007, General Nkunda’s spokesman has called for peace talks. However, the government is unlikely to agree to these talks. Regardless, negotiations would most likely solve little. Nkunda’s forces will not lay down their weapons, as the protection of Tutsi’s against Rwandan Hutu’s is paramount to its cause.
While General Nkunda currently holds the advantage, he will not likely attack UN forces protecting the road to Goma, nor would MONUC attack first. However, the UN has warned that if Nkunda’s forces advance on the town of Sake that they would, “open fire.”
As to be expected, innocent civilians have been hit the hardest. An estimated 425,000-800,000 people have fled the region in the last year to escape the violence. Clinics in Goma are already filled past capacity and malnutrition and cholera are becoming epidemic.
The current situation leaves the fledgling republic in grave danger. Reopening negotiations with Nkunda is a dangerous proposition for Kabila. Other ethnic and regional militias went through an integration process and would be angered by special treatment for Nkunda’s force, which they view as just another ethnic militia.
The ongoing crisis will likely receive more international attention in the near-term, but the situation will likely continue to deteriorate. FARDC will consolidate its retreating forces and prepare for another attack, which could further destabilize the region and impact the lives of nearly one million Congolese.
