Highlights
– On December 3, 2007, Iran made its first-ever appearance at the GCC Annual Summit in Doha, Qatar
– Iranian invitation is indicative that GCC member countries do not support the military option with regard to Iranian nuclear negotiations
– The GCC will increase its future diplomatic efforts to engage Iran, but will remain wary of Iranian nuclear ambitions and its growing influence in Iraq and the region
On December 3, 2007, representatives from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries, Turkey, and Iran opened the 2007 Annual GCC Summit hosted in the capital of Qatar, Doha. Established by Arab Gulf countries in May 1981 as a security alliance to counter Iranian influence in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution and to foster regional security, this year’s summit was marked by the history-making attendance of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The host of the 2007 summit, Qatar, invited President Ahmadinejad to attend regardless of opposition from some of the GCC’s most influential members. At the summit, President Ahmadinejad’s statement proposed the institution of a security pact and a 12-point program to foster increased ties between Iran and the GCC. Attempting to allay GCC concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program, President Ahmadinejad said, “we want peace and security… based on justice and without foreign intervention.”
Significance of Iranian Attendance
The GCC’s decision to invite Iran to attend its annual summit is a message to the US that the Arab Gulf will not support a military campaign against Iran. It also represents GCC efforts to engage Iran to mitigate Iranian backlash throughout the Gulf in the event of a US attack on Tehran. Given that many GCC member states host or support the US military and its operation in Iraq, the US would need the support of these members—namely Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE—in order to launch an attack. By inviting Iran to the summit, Qatar sent a message to the US that it supports dialogue, not force with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.
In a statement following the summit, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamed bin Jassem al-Thani called on the US to pursue dialogue saying, “direct talks do not mean agreeing with the other party.” He also defended Iran’s presence at the summit saying, “I do not think we can try to solve our problems through trying to seal Iran (off from) the region. They are a very important player.” And, that being, “pushed into a military confrontation with Iran,” is not in GCC members’ best interest.
The fact that Iran’s attendance at the GCC summit took place on the same day that the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was declassified—one year after the inquiry’s completion—is also significant.
Impact on GCC Policy
While unlikely to sign a security pact with Iran, the GCC will continue its attempts to engage and moderate Iran diplomatically in the coming months. As the GCC continues to pursue a peaceful nuclear program under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), GCC representatives will persist in their efforts to persuade Iranian leaders to accept a GCC sponsored compromise through which nuclear energy will be provided to Iran sometime in the future by the GCC in return for the cessation of Iranian uranium enrichment. It is also probable that the GCC will institute free-trade negotiations with its Iranian neighbor, which will benefit all parties while posing little threat to the national security of member countries.
The GCC, however, is not giving Iran a blank check. Member countries, though increasingly willing to engage Iran, remain wary of Iranian nuclear efforts and are concerned by increased Iranian influence in Iraq, and the region. Small steps toward engaging Iran will be followed by extended periods of inaction while member states seek to ascertain the purity of Iranian motives.
