Highlights
– Iran’s new missile, the Ashura, has the capability to reach Israel and US forces in the Middle East
– Experts debate whether or not Iran’s missile program is a threat to the US and the Middle East
– Iran does not pose a direct threat to the US presently, but could develop long-range missiles over the next ten to fifteen years
New Missiles, Advancements
On November 27, 2007, Iran’s military reported they had manufactured a new missile that could reach Israel and United States’ bases across the Middle East. According to the Israeli intelligence service, the Ashura is a solid-fuel missile with a range of 1,243 miles, meaning Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and even Bulgaria are well within its range. The name of the missile means “the tenth day” in Farsi, a sacred reference among Shiite Muslims to the martyrdom of Islam’s third imam.
The development of the Ashura is nothing new to Iran. The country has already made improvements on previous missiles, such as the Shahab-3, which has a range of 800 to 1200 miles. The Qadr-1, another missile in Iran’s possession, is basically a more advanced Shahab, which is an optically guided missile with a range of over 1,000 miles. Experts also believe Iran is developing the Shahab-4 missile, thought to have a range of 1,200-1,900 miles that would enable it to hit much of Europe. Some defense experts question if the new Ashura missile is new at all, or just another improvement on a previous armament. Presently, Iran does not likely have any long-range or intercontinental missiles in its arsenal.
Understanding the Threat
While the Bush administration believes that Iran is a major threat, and cites Iran’s growing missile program as a reason to build its proposed missile defense shield, there is major disagreement amongst experts if Iran poses a direct military threat to the US. According to a recent report by Congressional Research Services (CRS), while the US may overplay the threat Iran poses, its analysis is still grounded in reality. However, the non-partisan report states that the assessment is the worst-case scenario.
Without an international consensus on the Iranian missile program, many experts agree that Iran is attempting to build up its deterrent forces. Iran began to internally develop its missile program after the 1980-1988 Iran/Iraq War and have stepped up production in fear of a US attack. In the last two years, Iran has developed new missiles, unveiled three jet prototypes, a new Ghadir-class submarine and a new destroyer, the Jamaran.
From what intelligence is known about Iran’s missile program, it is very unlikely that Iran would launch an attack first. Its stockpile would not be adequate to maintain a full-scale assault. Some experts believe that even a limited assault would be doomed as their missiles would be “unreliable and ineffective.” An attack on Israel would likewise be unsuccessful, as Israel’s Hetz (Arrow 2) interceptor missile are more than capable of dealing with the attack.
Outlook
While factual statistics are limited, the growing Iranian missile program and defense buildup is a reflection of its regional ambitions, and should become a more important issue for the US in the long-term. Currently, Iran does not pose a direct threat to US borders, but experts believe that by 2015 they could develop long-range intercontinental missiles. Once Iran obtains these weapons, the current US strategy would have to change considerably. Until that time, the US is likely to keep pursuing its current strategy in Iran.
Nuclear warheads, combined with long-range missiles would pose a serious threat to not only the US, but to the entire world. Before that happens, the US government and agencies around the world must improve techniques and methods for corroborating more details about Iran’s growing arsenal. If not, the region will become more unstable in the future
