Highlights
– The 130-member pro-Correa assembly voted to dissolve Congress
– The new constitution will be drawn up by the assembly and submitted for a referendum in six months time
– Ecuador is undergoing reforms that resemble reforms in Bolivia and Venezuela
On November 29, 2007, an Ecuadorian assembly tasked with rewriting the country’s constitution voted to dissolve the opposition-led Congress and take over its duties. This action taken by the assembly greatly angered lawmakers who are warning that democracy in Ecuador is under threat.
The 130-member assembly voted 110 in favor of declaring the 100-seat Ecuadorian Congress “in recess” until a new constitution is drawn up in six months and submitted to the people in a referendum. The assembly’s decision to dissolve Congress was supported by President Rafael Correa, who deemed Congress as “corrupt” and “incompetent.”
On top of suspending Congress, President Correa also removed the attorney general, banking superintendent, and other top officials, in what has become a major government shake-up. Due to the ongoing political activities and resulting instability, we believe that Ecuador will experience possible violence and protests as opposition forces organize.
Detracting From Democracy
President Correa is claiming that Ecuador is facing a “magical” time, after the inauguration of the constitutional assembly that sacked Congress. However, the opposition is warning that Ecuador is headed towards a dictatorship.
President Correa has largely dismissed calls from former lawmakers that Ecuador is on a path towards dictatorship and argues his socialist reforms will greatly benefit the South American country.
The new constitution, which is to be drawn up within six months and submitted to the people in a referendum, will regulate the economy and modify Congress’ power to remove presidents, which impacted three of Correa’s predecessors. Under the new constitution, Correa claims Congress can still remove a president, but Congress would then be dissolved and early general elections would be scheduled.
However, opposition lawmakers are far from agreement with President Correa on the reforms. When the constitutional assembly voted to dismiss Congress and assume its responsibilities, outgoing lawmakers shouted, “The dictatorship has begun.” The lawmakers maintain the assembly’s usurpation of Congress’ powers is unconstitutional and warrants the implementation of international sanctions.
Socialism and Energy Control
Like President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, President Correa is pushing for a Socialist agenda in Ecuador by advocating direct control of the energy sector, a better distribution of wealth, and the ability to nationalize private property.
Recently at a ceremony in Montecristi, President Correa said that no contract for Ecuador’s natural resources can be issued “without royalties for the state” and said mining and oil laws would be reviewed. As in the similar case with Venezuela, the new initiatives are largely causing unease among the private sector.
While the new measures would ultimately allow the Ecuadorian president to consolidate his power base, the nationalist and protectionist policies are likely to detract some foreign companies from investing and doing business within Ecuador.
The Socialist Trend
The political situation in Ecuador is following a similar trend to that of the political situations in Bolivia and Venezuela. On December 9, 2007, allies of Bolivia’s leftist President Evo Morales approved nearly all of the country’s new constitution, which imposes more state control over natural gas, abolished the opposition-led Senate, permits president to be elected to two consecutive five year terms, and various other measures that benefit the state.
In Venezuela, President Chavez has been consolidating power for years. However, in a close vote on December 2, 2007, Chavez’s ambitious plans to further secure his power base were narrowly defeated.
Much like Bolivia and Venezuela, Ecuador is on a similar path.
Reforms Needed
According to Paul Madrid, a political science professor and expert in Andean politics at the University of Texas, Ecuador has been a troubled country for some time and some degree of overhaul is necessary to improve the standard of living and economic growth. However, according to Madrid, the situation is unlikely to improve when President Correa begins eliminating checks and balances.
We are anticipating ongoing political instability including protesting and unrest over the coming months as lawmakers fight back against the pro-Correa assembly that voted to remove them from office. As the assembly is in the process of drafting a new constitution, the political situation will remain tense. As the assembly is largely comprised of Correa supporters, Rafael Correa will be a major factor in the construction of the new Ecuadorian constitution.
With the opposition-led Congress out of the picture, we can expect President Correa to be more aggressive in consolidating his power base and silencing the opposition, by either chipping away at the media or suppressing opposition-led protests.
When the new constitution is drawn and submitted for a referendum, and approved, Ecuador would join socialist reforms currently underway in both Bolivia and Venezuela.
