Highlights
– Constitutional Assembly approves new draft constitution
– Violence, protesting, civil disobedience likely in coming months
– National referendum to be conducted in 2008
On December 9, 2007, in Oruro, Bolivia, a special Constitutional Assembly to Bolivia’s government handed President Evo Morales a victory for which he has been working for almost two years. In a 17-hour session, the assembly approved almost all of a new draft constitution that will be decided upon in a national referendum set for 2008.
The Great Divide
The nation remains highly divided over the proposed reforms, which include the granting of increased power to President Morales, the granting of greater autonomy to indigenous Andean people, greater state control of the economy and the abolishing of the country’s opposition-led Senate. More than 400 changes were approved in all. The country’s division was highly visible even in the Assembly where an opposition protest prompted 91 of the assemblymen to abstain from the approval vote. Eleven more voted against the newly created constitution.
Outside the assembly, miners, peasant farmers, other indigenous workers and families held a vigil as a show of solidarity for the assembly, as well as to protect the government officials from any potentially violent opposition-led protesting. Just two weeks ago, three people were killed in violent protesting in Sucre, where the assembly had been meeting.
The opposition, made of relatively wealthy persons from the western lowlands, has consistently protested the assembly and will likely continue to stage protests in the coming months preceding the 2008 referendum. Government officials loyal to the opposition have also expressed their intentions of challenging the proposed constitution; a document they deem was approved illegally. Opponents plan a movement to encourage citizens to defeat the reforms in referendum.
The prelude to the December 9th approval was plagued with violence and, as such, we expect more bloodshed in the coming months before the referendum. Bolivia’s six wealthiest provinces are likely to continue frequent protests that may incite additional civil disobedience, as well as negatively affect Bolivia’s economy. However opposition groups remain committed to opposing any further moves towards a leftist, authoritarian regime.
This Looks Awfully Familiar
Bolivian President Evo Morales is a strong ideological ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Chavez was recently defeated in his own constitutional reform project and Correa is in the process of pushing changes to his country’s constitution (Previous Report). The three represent a trend of leftist-leaning politics that has become popular in much of Latin America. However, as seen in Venezuela, when citizens believe that democracy is being abandoned for authoritarianism, voters are not so quick to change the direction of their nation.
Chavez’s proposed socialist reforms were similar to Morales’ in that more power would be centralized in the national government and the poor would gain more autonomy. President Chavez lost that vote by a margin of 51 to 49 percent, while being voted into office in 2006 by nearly 63 percent of the vote.
Bolivian President Morales won his presidential office with only 54 percent, but claims to have the support of nearly all the indigenous persons, or nearly 65 percent of Bolivia’s population. However, we contend, as in Venezuela, Morales may find it difficult to secure the necessary majority to pass the referendum.
A Look Forward
Several steps are necessary before the constitution can be enacted. First, a nationwide referendum is needed on one remaining article on land reform. Opposition officials believe this article was left out deliberately so that the ruling party could evaluate support in a national referendum before the full constitution is sent to referendum. Regardless, after that vote, the assembly will vote on the entire text. Finally, an additional nationwide referendum is required on the full constitution.
If the situation remains the same over the coming year, it is likely that the referendum will be passed due to Morales’ control of security forces, his popularity and the sheer numbers of indigenous people who support his efforts. However, if opposing forces can muster increasing support and surge at the polls, the vote could be much closer and turn out much like the situation in Venezuela. Still, with all variables considered, at this time it seems that President Morales may be in position to attain this victory.
In Bolivia, the coming year will likely be fraught with political turmoil and protesting. In the end, as in Venezuela, the citizenry will decide whether President Morales’ social and governmental reforms are needed to redistribute wealth and provide a framework for equality in Bolivia or if the nation is headed toward dictatorship. As such, the referendum vote in 2008 will decide the direction of Bolivia’s political and social future for years to come.
