Highlights
– Voters say “no” to proposed Constitutional changes
– Biggest challenge lies in the hands of the opposition, not Chavez
– Chavez vows to continue socialist reformation
Since 1998, rising oil prices and a tide of populist politics have given President Hugo Chavez the power to introduce socialist initiatives nearly at will in Venezuela. However, on December 2, 2007, voters rejected his most recent radical attempt to advance his socialist agenda when they refuted Chavez’s referendum, which included 69 proposed amendments to the Constitution.
By a close margin of 51 to 49 percent, voters decided that allowing President Chavez to run for re-election indefinitely, lengthening the presidential terms from six to seven years, and creating a socio-economic system based on “socialist, anti-imperialist principles,” was not best for the nation.
However, a long-term opposition will be difficult to achieve against a still strong Chavez-led government.
Popularity Decreasing
In the December 2007 election, voters rejected the amendments indicating that while President Chavez remains popular, some of his supporters also understand the need to maintain democracy and have become disenchanted with some economic policies riddled with inefficiencies. Of interest, Chavez was re-elected by 63 percent of the vote in 2006, while only 49 percent supported the recent referendum. The opposition, on the other hand—in a rare show of solidarity among opposition groups—obtained 51 percent after not amassing more than 41 percent in any of the previous elections against Chavez.
Yet the future challenge will be with the opposition, not Chavez. While the opposition will likely be emboldened by its victory, years of disorganization, tactical errors, and marginalization have disabled the opposition from obtaining neither the cohesion nor the political clout to mount a sustained challenge to Chavez.
President Chavez does retain a huge amount of political clout with allies occupying 20 of the 22 governorships and all but seven seats in the 167-member National Assembly. President Chavez still holds a great amount of power, as well as the National Assembly’s granting of special powers earlier this year to enact laws by decree, the “enabling law,” lasts until July 2008.
Challenges Ahead
The challenge for the opposition will be to find a formidable foe to Chavez that would represent an alternative for citizens in a nation largely run by one man for the past decade. While the opposition was able to unite against the referendum, without a long-standing rallying cry, the past has shown that the opposition may be unable to remain cohesive and produce the necessary sustained pressure to truly impact Chavez’s power.
Thus, the recent defeat in the polls will only slow Chavez’s socialist-inspired transformation of the nation, not completely halt it. President Chavez is still in line to yield great power over the coming five years of his presidential term. In the end, the referendum would have only given legitimacy to many of the previous and future actions by Chavez. With the help of his allies, Chavez still wields many powers including the ability to nationalize private institutions, increase taxes, restructure state institutions, and divide the nation’s oil wealth however he sees fit.
In fact, Chavez has already vowed to continue his pursuit of socialist reforms and has celebrated the outcome of the election to reflect that he is a true democrat for allowing the election results to stand. In essence, President Chavez is spinning his defeat as a win for democracy, denouncing international outcries that he is a dictator.
On the Horizon
President Chavez will not back down from his control of Venezuela. In the face of no organized and sustained opposition, Chavez will continue to proceed as before, reforming Venezuela with socialist ideals.
Chavez will likely relinquish the presidency, but not until 2013 when his term is completed. Before that time, he will continue the drive to build “21st century socialism,” and will likely be successful in achieving many of his goals.
If the opposition does not continue to mount ongoing resistance to Chavez’s campaign, five more years may be all Chavez needs to fulfill his “Bolivarian Revolution.”
