Highlights
– Thailand’s general election will be conducted on December 23, 2007
– Vote buying is still prevalent despite official steps to quell the corrupt practice
– Elections will likely reestablish democracy in Thailand; however, political instability is likely to continue for the long-term
More than one year after a military coup that ousted former Prime Minister (PM) Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand is set to convene a general election on December 23, 2007. The Election Commission has gone to extraordinary measures to prevent vote buying, a custom so common that the economy grows by an estimated 30 billion baht (US$1 billion) near election time.
Additionally, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, a highly influential figure in Thai society, called for all Thais to unite as they approach what will most likely be a divisive election. The two dominant parties will be the People’s Power Party (PPP), recently formed by Thaksin supporters, and the Democratic Party (DP).
Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the installation of an elected government is not likely to bring about a quick return to political stability in Thailand.
Fines, Jail and Black Magic
Vote buying has become so entrenched in Thai politics that the night before an election is called the “night of the barking dogs” because the canvassers go from house to house handing out cash, waking up dogs along the way. Over the years candidates have restored to numerous vote-buying methods from last-minute road paving to cash distributed by canvassers from political parties.
In order to scale down the number of vote buying incidents, the government began warning of widespread vote buying months before the election. A newly passed law makes it illegal to receive money for votes and the recipient can receive up to five years in jail and a 100,000 baht fine.
The election chief in the northeast province of Buriran resorted to non-traditional measures and called a faith healer to lead 200 officials and police in a “black magic” ceremony where they pledged not to violate any election laws. Additionally, the Election Commission has sent 2,200 investigators to areas where vote buying has traditionally been the most frequent.
However, the government will be unable to stop all instances of vote buying. Already, 75 cases of alleged vote buying have been opened, including one in which a candidate handed out Viagra instead of cash.
Fragile King Urges Unity
In a rare public speech, King Bhumibol Adulyadej began his 80th birthday celebration by calling for stability and security, stating that “If Thai people lack a national conscience and lack a sense of unity, there may be great misfortune for the entire nation.”
King Bhumibol is the world’s longest reigning monarch and is revered by Thais. He has kept a close watch on Thailand’s military leaders, particularly the current military junta ruling the country. In October 2007, Bhumibol suffered from a colon infection and inadequate blood flow to the brain, causing many to fear a prolonged military rule in Thailand. However, he was released from the hospital in early November 2007 and has reportedly fully recovered.
The King’s call for unity comes as tensions between the PPP and DP have intensified with the election only weeks away. Although a military-backed tribunal dissolved Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party earlier this year and many TRT lawmakers are banned from politics, the new PPP has emerged to be a dominant force in the election. Support for Thaksin remains strong in the north and northeast, which may lead to a PPP led coalition government.
Election Outlook
The DP will likely gain a significant number of members of parliament because of the strong support in the south and the middle class in Bangkok; however, the DP is still largely out of touch with Thailand’s grassroots, which will impair efforts to gain an overwhelming victory in the elections.
While the King remains healthy and active in Thai politics, the junta will presumably abide by the results of the election, even if the PPP gains a majority in the 480-member lower house. However, the government’s attempts to abolish vote buying are unlikely to greatly impact the corrupt practice.
The ongoing struggle between Thaksin supporters and opponents will likely create a weak coalition government, resulting in another general election within the next two years.
