Highlights
– The Israeli and Palestinian leadership faces formidable internal opposition to Israeli-Palestinian peace talks
– On the Palestinian side, Hamas threatens to derail peace negotiations through force, while the Shas party opposes Israeli concessions through political means
– Successful peace negotiations require an open-ended timetable and must involve all parties. Anything short of unanimity among the major power holders will result in widespread internal conflict, resulting in the collapse of the peace process
On the backdrop of peace overtures at the Annapolis International Peace Conference, anti-Annapolis protestors staged demonstrations in Gaza, Ramallah, Hebron, Israeli settlements, and across the Middle East, with recorded instances in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait, and Iran.
In Arab countries, anti-Annapolis rallies were primarily comprised of extremists, from both Muslim and Jewish camps, who are either unwilling to compromise on the establishment of recognized Israeli and Palestinian states or are refugees who see their hope of returning to their homes in Israel dimming.
Israeli opposition to the peace talks includes right-wing Zionist groups like the Yesha, who consider the establishment of a Palestinian state a roadblock to expanding the state of Israel.
Palestinian Opposition Groups
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are the most formidable organized Palestinian opposition groups to peace concessions. United in their opposition, the two groups staged a 100,000-man demonstration in Gaza, 3,000 in Hebron, and smaller groups throughout the Palestinian territories. Though Hamas led demonstrations in Gaza were peaceful, rallies in the West Bank were marked by deadly confrontations between demonstrators and the police.
Despite its previous concession that it would accept Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas as a mediator between Palestine and Israel, Hamas leadership publicly avows that Fatah is incapable of dictating its program in the region without Hamas’ support. Backed into a corner by its international patrons, Fatah is unwilling—or incapable—of negotiating with Hamas the reinstitution of a unity government. President Abbas instead hinted that Israel should retake Gaza by force.
In the meantime, Hamas is reportedly building up its armory in anticipation of a full-scale Israeli military incursion into Gaza. Weapons smuggled into Gaza are reported to include more lethal warheads, extended range rockets, and Katyushas. Senior Hamas official Ahmed Yousef said the group is now capable of creating “sufficient terror and fear” in Israel. While the group did not boast that it would be able to defeat the Israeli army, spokesmen for the group said they are “ready for a confrontation.”
Israeli Opposition Groups
While not threatening direct violence, the ultra-orthodox Shas party announced during the Annapolis Summit that it would withdraw from the Likud coalition if the division of Jerusalem was discussed in the course of the talks. Representing a significant number of votes for the ruling Likud party, the Shas party’s withdrawal could bring about the collapse of peace talks without firing a weapon. For the most part, however, the Shas party appears unthreatened by the Annapolis talks, calling the attempt to reach an agreement in 2008 a “dream.”
Seeking to justify his actions Prime Minister (PM) Ehud Olmert is attempting to convey a sense of immediacy in his public statements by referencing demographics favoring the Palestinian population. However, these arguments are unlikely to deter Zionist settler movements like the Yesha from pushing forward with plans to build settlements inside the Palestinian territories.
A Way Forward
Neither the Israeli plan to isolate Gaza and possibly overthrow Hamas, nor the US plan of politically delegitimizing Hamas will succeed. These plans will fail because it only takes one missile or one bullet to undo months of progress around the negotiating table. Therefore, if peace is to be attained, the Palestinian Authority and Israel must engage Hamas. Only in the context of a Palestinian unity government will the implementation of negotiated agreements be possible.
Because engaging Hamas will require significant good faith efforts on behalf of the Israeli government, PM Olmert must seek to clear his name of political controversy and secure the support of the Shas party.
As with the Oslo Accords—agreements made in haste and without the support of both the Israeli and Palestinian public—will end in increased internal conflict and violence.
