Highlights
– Top Tamil Tiger peace negotiator killed by Sri Lankan Air Force
– Sri Lanka increases security, expecting a backlash from LTTE forces
– LTTE and Sri Lankan government are unlikely to reach a peace agreement in the mid to long-term
A Sri Lankan Air Force bombing killed the Tamil Tiger political wing leader and top peace negotiator SP Thamilselvan in an early morning raid on November 2, 2007. Thamilselvan’s death comes amid an intensified conflict, as both sides continue to add to a growing number of casualties in the decades old war.
In September 2007, the Sri Lankan military reported making significant gains against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels. However, the ongoing accusations of several human rights groups and a Black Tiger suicide attack that nearly wiped out Sri Lankan Air Force surveillance aircraft overshadows any previous military gains.
Clashes between the LTTE and Sri Lankan troops are likely to increase and intensify in the near to mid-term, resulting in increased unemployment and human rights abuses.
Conflict Intensified
On October 22, 2007, 21 members of the Land Black Tigers backed by two bomber aircraft attacked a Sri Lankan Air Force base in Anuradhapura. The attack killed 14 troops and damaged or destroyed 24 of the 27 aircraft at the base. The LTTE choose to attack the base because several of the aircraft had advanced surveillance capabilities that prevented the LTTE from launching any major marine landing operations (Previous Report).
In retaliation, Sri Lankan troops have attacked LTTE strongholds in the north almost daily, reporting dozens of casualties every day. Sources indicate that the Sri Lankan military has Tamil defectors who are helping them launch campaigns, including the air raid that killed Thamilselvan.
Thamilselvan was the highest ranking rebel leader to be killed in the 35-year long conflict and the Sri Lankan Defense Secretary stated, “This is just a message that we know where their leaders are. I know the locations of all the leaders.”
Thamilselvan’s death will most likely prompt the LTTE to stage more damaging attacks, such as the attack on the Anuradhapura base, as well as boost the confidence of the Sri Lankan military in the near-term.
Rising Unemployment
The intensified conflict has severely damaged Sri Lanka’s tourist industry, leading to a rise in unemployment. Since the closure of the country’s only international airport in April 2007 tourism in Sri Lanka has dramatically declined. The airport was forced to close after the Tiger air wing launched attacks over the airport, just outside the capital city of Colombo .
Between the months of March and June 2007, tourist arrivals fell by more than 30 percent each month. Although the decline slowed in August (only 15 percent), the increased conflict and ground assault on an army detachment inside the popular Yala wildlife park in October 2007 are likely to reinforce the downward trend .
The decrease in tourism has left thousands of people unemployed, affecting an estimated 70,000 families. Daily wage earners and part-time employees felt the impact first as large beachside hotels were forced to downsize.
Outlook
Increased clashes between LTTE and Sri Lankan forces will continue to deter tourists from visiting the island. Growing unrest will likely emerge as the economy suffers from the loss of revenue generated by tourism.
In the coming weeks the Sri Lankan government is expected to announce its largest defense budget, set to rise by 20 percent to US$1.45 billion in 2008, reinforcing its desire to solve the conflict militarily without negotiations.
Hopes for peace talks have been substantially dampened, as the death of Thamilselvan will likely lead to a major confrontation in the rebel-controlled north of the country in the near-term.
