Highlights
– The Rose Revolution honeymoon is over for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
– Georgia has a long way to go to build a modern democratic nation
– Any potential changes in the government are likely to be non-violent
The large-scale protests against Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in the past week are an ominous sign of the difficulties facing post-Soviet states in their attempts to transition into modern democracies. Protestors and opposition groups want Saakashvili to resign and early elections to be conducted.
Dissatisfaction with Saakashvili can be viewed from two different perspectives. Opposition and other parties believe that his regime is still just another form of authoritarianism and has failed to institute meaningful political and economic reforms. From another perspective, Saakashvili has become a scapegoat for a public that is suffering economically and is frustrated with Georgia’s slow growth in many areas.
Turning a cumbersome Soviet style system around overnight has not been an easy task and Saakashvili may be bearing the brunt of this burden.
In countries that are recovering from old Soviet style of governance and economics, the institutional knowledge needed to achieve reform is often lacking. Despite high hopes, it is not possible to achieve change quickly especially with entrenched bureaucracies.
The Rise of Mikhail Saakashvili
Georgia is one of the former Soviet republics that underwent a so-called “soft” revolution where power was peacefully transferred to the peoples’ candidate in the march to democracy. In Georgia, the hopes of the November 2003 “Rose Revolution” were embodied by one Mikhail Saakashvili who succeeded to the Presidency of Georgia in January of 2004. Saakashvili came to power with a great deal of style and flair and epitomized youth and modernity—characteristics Georgians wanted from their government.
Prior to Saakashvili, Eduard Shevardnadze, the elderly statesman, ruled Georgia for almost 30 years, first as a Communist Party boss and then as President after Georgian independence. Patience with the pace of reform under Shevardnadze had already soured when the people took to the streets calling for his ouster. Mass demonstrations resulted after flawed Parliamentary results in November 2003. When military forces were called in as reinforcements, demonstrators handed them roses, and some of the soldiers put down their weapons in solidarity, hence the moniker “Rose Revolution” was coined to describe those extraordinary historical events in Georgia.
Mikhail Saakashvili was one of the protest leaders who actually rushed into a chamber of Parliament and confronted Shevardnadze, demanding his resignation. This was a defining moment for his political career and made him a national hero.
Mikhail Saakashvili represented a fresh start for the country. Saakashvili was young, thirty-five years old and had been educated in the United States. At first glance, he did not appear to have any of the old Soviet baggage associated with him and therefore seemed well suited to leading Georgia down a modern and democratic path.
His administration jailed former officials on corruption and embezzlement charges and moved against incompetent and corrupt police forces. The weak state of Georgia’s military was also repaired. He also developed new educational standards for the country and developed tax and revenue streams. More importantly he improved some of the country’ s decaying infrastructure such as the electrical supply system, which used to be very unreliable.
In terms of foreign policy, Saakashvili has been a staunch ally of the West expressing interest in Western institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He has made it clear Georgia wants to move away from the Russian sphere of influence, and as a result, relations with Moscow have been combative.
Disillusionment with Saakashvili
The September 2007 rallies were the largest since the Rose Revolution, which is a disturbing indicator of stability in Georgia. However, Saakashvili is still thought to have plenty of supporters. Recent protestors are angry about the poverty and unemployment prevalent in Georgia. The judiciary remains weak and corruption in the country has not been eradicated. Opposition critics claim that Saakashvili runs the country like an autocrat with his own special clique, is unapproachable, and does not engage the opposition. Critics are also angry about a measure agreed to by Saakashvili and Parliament last year to extend Parliament’s term to the fall of 2008 instead of the Spring. Although this measure was agreed to last year, opposition groups believe it violates democratic principles to change these terms while in office.
The opposition has been fragmented and slow to organize in Georgia, but events in the last two months have galvanized them. A former Georgian Defense Minister, Irakly Okruashvili accused Saakashvili of being involved in corruption and a murder plot. Two days later, he was arrested on money laundering charges. This triggered large street protests at the end of September 2007. Protesters believed that the government was retaliating against someone who was calling out corruption in government and that the timing was highly suspicious. The government claimed they were not targeting political opponents but one of their own former members on suspected wrongdoing. Later Okruashvili recanted saying he made the statements for political gain but opposition members believe that this confession was coerced. After Okruashvili posted bail, he left the country.
This case also triggered the uniting of opposition parties under the banner of the “Salvation Front.” This opposition group wanted to spark an electoral revolution, specifically changes to the electoral process and more opposition representation in Parliament. The current Georgian administration believes the opposition was using these political protests as political blackmail.
Outlook
A stable Georgia that is currently pro-Western is a vital counter to Russian influence in the region. However, it remains to be seen if Saakashvili is up to the task of reforming Georgia in a truly modern and democratic manner. Nation building and democracy are difficult tasks, but if a leader like Mikhail Saakashvili cannot make Georgia work, then it may be very difficult to find someone who can.
