Highlights
– AOIM has continued to grow in size and prestige, as al-Qaeda adds North African groups to its organization
– As AOIM expands, attacks will become more sophisticated and effective
– The group’s mission to attack Westerners and Western interests in North Africa and Europe will not change in the foreseeable future
Although the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) has experienced many losses in the past year, the group has achieved more in terms of enhanced capabilities, expansion, and destruction enacted from successful attacks. Two critical factors, which contribute to the group’s success, are its dedication to the jihadist cause and its loyalty to al-Qaeda. AOIM has endured severe security crackdowns, arrests, and internal conflicts in the past year, however, the group has remained focused on its mission to expand the global jihad in North Africa and Europe, as well as send fighters to Iraq and Afghanistan.
As long as the group is committed to al-Qaeda and the tenets of jihad, AOIM will continue to execute attack operations and expand its capabilities for the long-term.
Growth and Expansion
In November 2006, before the former-Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) officially changed its name in January 2007, al-Qaeda’s number two in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri called on the group to co-opt other North African militant groups to form the “Union of the Arab Maghreb” (Previous Report). Along with the former-GSPC, the network was supposed to include the Moroccan Islamic Combat Group (GICM), several Tunisian militant groups, and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG).
It was under this umbrella that AOIM has been functioning for the past year, though few links to GICM and LIFG were observed. When al-Zawahiri recently announced the official merge between the LIFG, al-Qaeda, and AOIM on November 3, 2007 (Previous Report), it was not a surprise. As an effort to expand AOIM’s influence and threat capacity, the merge signifies the group’s cohesiveness and resolve. Al-Qaeda will soon decide to formally enlist the remaining groups as part of the organization. There is strength in numbers when it comes to winning over the population for the jihadist cause, and the recent promotion of the group’s unification will be used as a rallying point.
Destruction
As AOIM matured in size, technology, and tactics, the level of attacks has dually increased. Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia have been the theatre of many attacks in the past. Libya, however, has not been subjected to various attacks in recent history. Thus, it is interesting that al-Zawahiri chose the Libyan based LIFG as a specific group to join the organization.
We believe one of the reasons is to provide the LIFG with added incentive to reactivate itself under the banner of al-Qaeda and carry out mass destructive attacks against foreigners and Western interests in Libya and elsewhere. AOIM will continue to stretch its influence across North Africa, as doing so will enable the group to grow in prestige and influence more young aspiring militants to join the cause.
Future Impact
AOIM has developed significantly over the years, but its roots remain in the Algerian Islamic militant movement that waged a ten year civil war with Algerian forces in the 1990s. Al-Qaeda has done a good job of unifying North Africa extremists in name under the AOIM banner, but we believe the various groups and factions are still relatively unorganized and therefore unaffected by their new relationship to the al-Qaeda senior leadership in South Asia.
In the future, AOIM will continue to do what its constituent membership have done; attack local government symbols and security forces. However, the relationship with al-Qaeda—combined with the North Africans who volunteered for and survived fighting in Iraq—create a more robust and dangerous international dimension. Stronger links with al-Qaeda and Iraq veterans who return will be more capable and more inclined to attack Western, as well as local targets in North Africa. These groups will also use existing linkages and networks to migrate to Europe to plan attacks. Countries most affected include Spain, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.
Overall, AOIM will continue its struggle with local African security forces; but the small percentage that are truly al-Qaeda inspired and battle-proven bring a significant terrorist capability that will likely result in significant attacks in Africa and Europe in the coming months and years.
