Highlights
– Southern Sudan withdraws from unity government
– Prospects of renewed fighting has increased
– Regional stability would be adversely affected by renewed hostilities
– International intervention is needed
On October 11, 2007, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the political arm of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), withdrew from Sudan’s coalition government. The SPLM announced its decision to leave the government after the National Congress Party (NCP) failed to implement provisions from the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) according to an established timeline.
A Fragile Peace
Signed in January 2005, the CPA ended a 21-year civil war between the SPLA in southern Sudan and the northern Sudan, Khartoum-based NCP that killed nearly two million people. A census included in the CPA has already been delayed once, raising concerns the national elections to be conducted in early 2009 might also be delayed.
The elections are an important part of the CPA that allows for a 2011 referendum on independence to be furthered in southern Sudan. As of now, the NCP has failed to withdraw all of its troops from southern Sudan. Additionally, the agreements on a final north-south border and the distribution of wealth from the oil-rich Abyei region have yet to be reached. The two sides have also failed to integrate their separate armies into a national army.
Regional Impact
The affect of renewed hostilities between northern and the southern Sudan would have significant repercussions throughout the region. The first area to be affected would be Darfur. Already, the collapse of the unity government has lead to two prominent Darfur rebel groups withdrawing from peace talks being conducted in Libya.
Despite the oil-fueled economic boom the north, the NCP hopes to avoid waging war on two fronts. If the situation in the south continues to deteriorate, the NCP is likely to increase its military campaign in Darfur in order to weaken the rebels. The situation in northern Uganda and southern Sudan would also deteriorate rapidly, especially with the NCP having supported the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which operates along the Sudanese-Ugandan border. With increased support from the NCP, the peace process in Uganda would be at risk. With the LRA also operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), eastern DR Congo could also be destabilized.
International Intervention Required
The SPLM states that it would like to avoid another civil war. However, without immediate intervention by the international community, rising tensions could quickly lead to renewed hostilities. The CPA was passed in 2005 only after the international community exerted pressure on the NCP to agree to peace talks. With the international community’s attention largely focused on the Darfur region, the possibility that the collapse of the CPA will be ignored by the international community is a real concern.
A renewal of hostilities could potentially destroy the progress southern Sudan has made in reconstruction following the 21-year civil war. Renewed hostilities may negatively impact the region, which was impacted by the 21-year civil war. Additionally, the negative impact on Darfur could further worsen ongoing instability in neighboring Chad and the Central African Republic.
While renewed fighting is not imminent, we believe without the international community’s involvement in ensuring the CPA is fully implemented, another destabilizing war could be fought between northern and southern Sudan.
