Highlights
– Europe remains divided on how to deal with Iran
– France and Great Britain see tougher sanctions as essential
– Germany is backed by Italy, Spain, and Austria in opposition to harsh EU sanctions
On October 25, the United States announced a new set of sanctions targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a separate branch of Iran’s military. In the latest set of sanctions, the United States has cut off several Iranian banks and companies linked to the IRGC from the American financial system, in an effort to further isolate the Islamic Republic.
Washington’s latest sanctions on Iran are likely to increase pressure on its European allies to follow suit. However, Europe has not produced a unified voice on how to put pressure on the Islamic Republic. Europe remains incredibility divided on how to deal with Iran’s alleged nuclear program. With the U.S placing tough new sanctions on Iran, the next step falls to European nations and whether or not they will implement tough measures of their own.
A Divided Continent
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the principle intention of the announcement was to send a clear signal to the Europeans, Chinese, and Russians that the United States plans to get tougher with Iran. Also according to Carnegie Endowment, the new sanctions send a message to the Europeans that if they do not support the U.S. stance, Europe heightens the risk of the United States taking military action against Iran.
Great Britain and France are the two leading European countries pushing for new EU sanctions to punish Iran over its alleged nuclear program. However, the continent largely remains divided at a time when the United States has raised the stakes. Both France and Great Britain see tougher sanctions as essential, but few other European nations are stepping up to support tougher EU sanctions.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner ultimately failed to get EU foreign ministers to agree on new sanctions on Iran in mid-October, largely because of opposition from Germany and Italy. Germany, Iran’s biggest EU trading partner, has been hesitant in supporting harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic and continues to advocate diplomacy. Berlin is backed by Austria, Italy, and Spain, all countries that have key commercial ties to Tehran. According to an Israeli diplomat speaking to the Haaretz newspaper, “For the first time, the European stance is truly divided.”
All Eyes on Germany
Unilateral sanctions implemented by the United States against Iran are likely to have little effect without support from the EU. This is the primary reason why the United States is urging its European allies to follow suit. With France and Great Britain already on board, the three countries are trying to gain the support of Germany.
According to Haaretz, Germany is the largest exporter to Iran with a trade balance of $5 billion per year. Germany is slowing shrinking its business dealings with the Islamic Republic as three German banks in recent months announced they were ending business dealings with Iran. German exports have dropped by 20 percent in the past six months. However, Haaretz reports that more than 1,700 German firms continue to do business in Iran, making German support vital if economic sanctions are to be effective against the Islamic Republic.
Berlin has argued that only international unity can effectively pressure Iran. Germany is unhappy with the current French initiative and is largely determined to reach an agreement with Russia and China on a third round of sanctions through the United Nations Security Council. However, the United States sees little hope as Russia and China have staunchly opposed harsh sanctions against Iran and is unlikely to support them now.
Future Outlook
European nations increasingly fear a war in their backyard as the United States steps up pressure on Iran. Concerns are rising throughout the continent that the United States or Israel may be planning to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran. Several European leaders feel compelled to support those in the Bush administration who favor sanctions over military action, but are conflicted as they would be jeopardizing their own profitable business ties to Iran.
As Great Britain and France are following the United States in supporting a hard-line stance against the Iranians, several other European Union nations have yet to follow suit for various reasons. It is likely that the United States, along with Great Britain and France, will put increasingly amounts of pressure upon Germany to support a more hard-line stance against Iranians.
There is a consensus on the continent for the European Union to implement unilateral against Iran, but how harsh is what is dividing Europe. The Bush administration understands that it needs Europe’s support if it hopes to force Iran to back down over its nuclear program. But, up against Russian and Chinese reluctance, Germany, Austria, Italy, and Spain are insisting on a unified voice through the Security Council, something that is unlikely to occur in the near to mid term.
