Highlights
-As a result of increased interdependence between the two countries, Syria will maintain a policy of unfettered support for Turkish policies
– Syria is under pressure from US and is cultivating regional goodwill
On October 20, 2007, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani denounced an October 17, 2007 statement by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad backing a possible Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq against members of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK).
President Talabani said President al-Assad’s statement crossed a “red line” in Syrian-Iraqi relations. It is doubtful, however, that President al-Assad will apologize or withdraw his support given the continued and growing strategic importance of Syrian-Turkish relations—which is projected to increase in the years to come.
Growing Economic Interdependence
Perhaps the most vital aspect of Syria’s bilateral ties with Turkey is their joint oil and natural gas development and exploration efforts in Syria.
•In July 2007, the two states engaged in discussions focused on establishing the borders for offshore drilling blocks within Syria’s territorial waters.
•In June 2007, Syrian Oil Minister Sufyan Allawi announced the passage of a multilateral agreement to extend the Arab Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline from Homs, Syria to the Turkish border city of Kilis. In Turkey, the Arab Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline will feed into the Nabucco Pipeline for gas delivery in Europe.
•In October 2005, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to establish mutual cooperation between the Syrian Company for Petroleum (SPC) and the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPA) to explore, as well as invest in, Syrian oil fields.
•The Syrian-Turkish Free Trade Agreement was signed in December 2004, and fully implemented in 2007.
Alongside their joint oil exploration projects, Turkey and Syria are engaged in joint irrigation and water infrastructure development projects, as well as the Turkey-Syria Interregional Program. A large percentage of Syria’s water supply originates in Turkey via the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers; the primary fresh water sources for both countries. Therefore, Turkey and Syria are engaged in efforts to build joint irrigation systems off the Euphrates River. The countries are also in the process of completing the al-Asi River dam project, which is designed to mitigate the effects of flooding in the al-Asi River basin.
The Turkey-Syria Interregional Program provided a framework through which Turkish and Syrian companies submitted cross-border project proposals—the deadline for project submission was July 16, 2007. The coordination center received 81 proposals, the majority of which originated in Kilis and were designed to develop technical cooperation in the areas of tourism and infrastructure.
Turkey’s Role is Securing Syrian Airspace
While Syria is vitally interested in maintaining and expanding economic relations with its Turkish neighbor, Turkey’s role in restricting over flight of inbound enemy aircraft is also of importance for the Syrian government. Under agreements signed between Turkey and Israel, the Israeli Air Force trains inside Turkish airspace.
However, Turkey was surprised after finding Israeli fuel tanks dropped in Turkish territory following an unauthorized Israeli bombing raid against a Syrian target. On October 8, 2007, a month after the Israeli raid, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan spoke out publically against the Israeli raid, acknowledged the Turkish government’s discovery of dumped Israeli fuel tanks within its territory, and demanded an explanation of Israeli officials.
The Turkish government vehemently denied foreknowledge of the attack and pledged that its airspace would not be used to attack Syrian targets.
The Future of Syrian-Turkish Relations
In the future, expansion of Syrian and Turkish economic and strategic interdependence will continue. The two countries strategic alliance concerning border security, cheap, sustainable oil, natural gas, and fresh water supplies are at the root of ongoing efforts to further develop bilateral relations.
In the coming years, an increase in joint industries is anticipated, as well as infrastructure development, easing the transit of Syrian goods to Turkish border towns.
Following the completion of the Syria-Turkey portion of the Arab Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline, the two countries’ economic ties will be too interconnected for either to risk major conflict.
In addition to economic growth, through solid Turkish relations, Syria gains leverage with a historic US and recent Israeli ally; while Turkey gains regional prominence and an advocate for its struggle against Kurdish terrorism.
