Highlights
• Positive results after the first inter-Korean summit in seven years
• US nuclear experts set to arrive in North Korea to create plans for nuclear disablement
• Optimism that denuclearization will occur
On October 2, 2007, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun walked across the heavily armed border separating South Korea from the North, marking an important step in the peace process between the two countries. The first inter-Korean summit in seven years appeared to produce positive results as President Roh announced that he felt “satisfied” by the meeting.
Although President Roh and North Korean President Kim Jong-il signed an agreement to work towards peace, the success of the agreement relies upon the active participation of China and the United States along with the continued cooperation of President Kim.
North and South Korea technically remain at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a temporary cease-fire. Past actions by President Kim have kept the division in place; however, we believe denuclearization efforts will be the turning point in North and South Korea relations.
Disarmament for Aid
A six-nation deal was announced on October 3, 2007, stating that North Korea will likely begin to disable its nuclear facilities in mid-October. The disablement is projected to take 45-days to complete and in return, the US, Russia, Japan, China and South Korea will provide the North with another 900,000 tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid, in addition to 100,000 tons already sent.
Additionally, South Korea will implement special economic zones in North Korea and relocate labor-intensive industries to North Korea. The policies are focused on improving North Korea’s impoverished economy and boosting self-confidence as the North begins to open its economy.
However, North Korean leaders have kept the country isolated for over half a century, which is likely to result in slow and unpredictable progress. The North conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006 and it is still unknown how many nuclear weapons material or nuclear detonating devices are in the country.
US Plans
A team of US nuclear experts will arrive in North Korea on October 9, 2007, to create a plan for future teams to begin disabling the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon. The Yongbyon nuclear complex is believed to have produced enough plutonium for more than a dozen bombs – including the device North Korea detonated in October 2006.
The US has promised to work towards removing Pyongyang from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and eventually normalizing diplomatic ties, however, the US has emphasized that normalization will be possible only after North Korea is fully denuclearized.
South Korean Optimism
President Roh has stated his confidence that, “The North Korean nuclear issue will rapidly arrive at a complete resolution.” The meeting was only the second time leaders of North and South Korea have met since the Korean Peninsula was divided after World War II, creating high expectations among many world leaders.
President Roh, whose term ends in December 2007, has been a strong advocate of reconciliation with the North throughout his presidency. The conservative opposition has dominated the campaign for the upcoming elections, which made successful inter-Korean relations more important that usual.
We believe the recent summit in North Korea demonstrates President Kim’s cautious willingness to move towards the complete denuclearization of North Korea. However, past actions make it difficult to determine whether President Kim will finally follow through with his promises.
