Angola’s 10-month long voter registration campaign ended on September 15, 2007, after a 90-day extension. According to the government, 8 million Angolans registered to vote during the process. The registration is an important step towards holding parliamentary elections in 2008 and presidential elections in 2009, however no dates have been set for either election.
Despite a lack of designated election dates, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has instructed the electoral commission to begin the process of preparing for the elections.
Much is at stake in the future elections, as ongoing economic success—largely fueled by Angola’s oil industry—will depend on a smooth transition of power. Any conflict between the current ruling party and its opposition could be devastating to Angola’s economy and its oil trade partnerships.
Further Delays Possible
The government has repeatedly delayed elections claiming poor infrastructure. The completion of voter registration is an important step towards allowing elections to take place successfully. However, with no dates announced yet, there are fears that the government may try to delay elections again.
The ruling party, The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), have been in power since independence from Portugal in 1975. The party is concerned that its popularity is suffering due to an economic boom, largely due to oil, that has thus far failed to benefit the majority of Angolans.
Renewed Fears of Civil Conflict
Angola has only held national elections once since independence. The United Nations (UN) sanctioned the 1992 elections and the MPLA defeated the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) party. UNITA refused to accept the election results and a civil war resumed between the MPLA and UNITA. There are fears that if elections are not conducted as promised in 2008 and 2009, there could be a return to violence. President dos Santos has been in power since 1979 following the sudden death of Angola’s first president, Dr. Agostinho Neto. It remains unclear if the MPLA and President dos Santos would be willing to hand power over if defeated in a popular vote.
If the elections are further delayed or viewed as illegitimate, a renewal of hostilities between the MPLA and UNITAS is possible. The elections will be coordinated by the Ministry of Territorial Administration with the National Electoral Commission playing a smaller, supervisory role.
This has caused concern that the elections could be perceived as illegitimate, despite government assurances the elections will be conducted free and fair. However, it remains unclear if the new UNITAS leadership, in place after long time leader Jonas Savimbi was killed in 2002, would renew hostilities in the event elections were deemed improper.
Future Impact
A renewal of hostilities would have greater impact on the world now than the previous civil war due to the increasing importance of Angola in the global oil market. Angola is the second largest producer of oil in Africa, just behind Nigeria. Angola is expected to increase its output to 2 billion barrels per day by the end of 2007.
A civil war would likely cut oil output and result in an increase in crude oil prices overall. Such an impact would adversely affect the economic strides Angola is currently achieving, and would have devastating consequences for the Angola population. Achieving a free and fair election and decreasing the likelihood of any internal conflicts will be important to Angola’s future growth and success.