In the past couple of months, violence in Sri Lanka has increased as government forces battled rebels, who are currently in control of most of northern Sri Lanka. The conflict between Sri Lankan government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has often been fought in the shadows. Both sides making claims and accusing each other of atrocities is common, as the real facts of the conflict are hard to come by. Since the conflict erupted in 1983, more than 70,000 people have been killed and millions displaced.
The latest eruption in violence places Sri Lanka on the brink of an all-out war between the central government in Colombo and the Tamil Tigers based in the north.
Sri Lanka Military Makes Gains
August 2007 has been the most violent month in Sri Lanka since the 2002 ceasefire that supposedly halted two decades of civil war between the Tamil rebels and Sri Lankan government. Hundreds of rebels, soldiers, and civilians were killed in August 2007, and more than 200,000 people fled their homes.
The reason for the increased violence in recent months has been attributed to the multiple military offensives launched by the Sri Lankan government. In July 2007, the government began a major drive to push the rebels out of their scattered bases in the east and for the first time in 13 years gained control of the eastern part of the island. The Tamil rebels claimed that the loss of eastern Sri Lanka was only a minor setback, since their major base of operations is in the northern heartland. However, the Sri Lankan government notes that the recapturing of eastern Sri Lanka has given the government a strategic advantage, especially in its ability to target the Sea Tigers, the LTTE naval force. The government’s offensive in the east was aided by a former Tamil Tiger commander known as Karuna, who defected along with almost a thousand of his men to assist Sri Lankan forces.
The Sri Lankan government has launched several amnesty plans in the past hoping Tamil rebels would surrender and switch sides, but the loyalty the Tamil Tigers have to their leader and cause has been hard to break. The reason Karuna defected is unknown, but it provided the Sri Lankan government with firsthand knowledge of the eastern terrain and rebel bases.
Brink of Full-Scale War
The government’s success in the east has given the military confidence and momentum, which has resulted in increased hostilities. The government stepped up attacks in the northeast area of Mannar, where the military captured a key rebel sea base that served as a transit point for sending weapons to rebel forces fighting in the south. Mannar has become a flashpoint in the country’s escalating conflict.
The northern districts of Vavuniya, Jaffna, and Sampur have also seen heavy fighting as government forces and Tamil rebels are involved in land and sea battles, ambushes, and air raids. The Sri Lankan military is putting much focus on capturing towns along the northeastern coast of Sri Lanka, causing speculation that the action is a precursor to a major incursion into the northern heartland, where rebel forces are the strongest.
Sri Lankan Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa was recently quoted as saying; “The government is determined to liberate the remainder of the unclear areas in the Wanni from the clutches of the LTTE in the same way as it liberated the east.” The government is determined to end the conflict so future generations are not left with the burden of war and to prevent the LTTE from regrouping in the east as it has done after past defeats.
Future Outlook
The island nation of Sri Lanka has been slowly descending into a war zone, especially in the northern region. Thus far, the Sri Lankan military has mainly focused on recapturing the east and various towns in the north. The Sri Lankan government has denied it was preparing to launch an offensive to drive Tamil rebels out of their fortified heartland in the north. However, speculation has been mounting that the central government is planning an invasion into the heartland, or push deep into the dense jungles of the Vanni, another rebel stronghold.
Any drive by the Sri Lankan government into the heartland of the north would likely result in a high death toll on both sides. The heartland is heavily fortified by Tamil rebels, who are dug in and waiting for an eventual offensive.
Vipul Boteju, a retired Sri Lankan army brigadier general, argued that the military currently lacked the men and firepower to undertake a major drive into the heartland, where the terrain favored the guerrillas.
The government is sending mixed signals on whether or not it is preparing a major offensive in the north. Colombo is determined to defeat the Tamil rebels and believes this cannot be done without a major drive into the north.
In the near-term, the situation in Sri Lanka is expected to remain tense and unstable, as major drive into the north seems all but inevitable.
