On Thursday, August 30, an unidentified person called in a bomb threat to an office located in the 740-foot Torre Mayor building, located on Mexico City’s Reforma Avenue, warning that a bomb had been placed inside a car parked on one of the building’s 13 parking levels. Bomb disposal experts identified a suspected explosive device consisting of three metal tubes tied together. Although unconfirmed by Mexican police, a cell phone detonator may have been attached to the device. The device contained a small amount of gunpowder and wouldn’t have damaged the building had it been detonated, the police said.
About 50 companies, including Barclays Plc’s Barclays Capital unit, First Data Corp., Apple Inc., Marsh & McLennan Cos., Western Union Co. and IXE Grupo Financiero, are tenants in Torre Mayor.
Insurgent Involvement Unlikely
Thus far, no group has yet taken responsibility for the threat, suggesting this activity was criminal in nature. Although Marxist guerrillas belonging to the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) have increased militant activities throughout southern and central Mexico in recent months, the EPR’s historical base of operations is hundreds of miles away in the impoverished southern states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. In addition the EPR has undergone a series of internal divisions in recent years likely limiting the ability of the EPR to stage such an effective and highly developed attack against Mexico City targets. Moreover the EPR has previously sought to perpetrate attacks against Mexican infrastructure and military, employing small explosive devices or small arms.
The most likely perpetrators remain Mexico’s powerful drug cartels that are currently being targeted by Mexican President Felipe Calderon and the Mexican military or some minor extortionist seeking financial gain or notoriety.
Mexico’s drug cartels possess both the intent and capability to conduct economically devastating attacks. In addition the threat occurs one day after Mexican soldiers arrested Juan Carlos de la Cruz, a key member of Mexico’s powerful Gulf Cartel. Juan Carlos de la Cruz was arrested with three Colombians and three alleged hitmen while dining in Mexico City. De la Cruz had recently been promoted within the cartel and was the primary link with Central and South American drug smuggling gangs.
Growing Threat of Leftist Extremists and Drug Cartels
The Mexican state has experienced a series of bombing attacks since November, ranging from small explosions that damaged storefronts to a gas-pipeline attack that forced factories to shut down in July.
On November 6, 2006, a coalition of five leftist guerrilla groups perpetrated a series of explosions in Mexico City, targeting the Federal Electoral Tribunal (aka Trife), a Canadian-owned Scotiabank branch in southern Mexico City, and the headquarters of the PRI (former ruling party). Leftist guerrillas released an official statement the following day claiming that the attacks were perpetrated in support of leftist political endeavors in Oaxaca City. It remains unclear why guerrillas targeted the Canadian-owned Scotiabank; the bank has no connections to the current political turmoil in Oaxaca City.
On November 13, 2006, leftist youths in Oaxaca City firebombed a local McDonald’s restaurant in a Oaxaca City shopping center. The establishment was closed at the time of the attack, preventing potential injury to customers. However, substantial damage to the restaurant occurred. A similar attack targeted a Burger King located at the same shopping center the previous week.
The aforementioned July 5 and July 10 bombing attacks on a PEMEX pipeline caused extensive damage to the Mexican economy forcing the temporary closure of some 1200 factories in several Mexican industrial cities, including factories operated by Honda Motor Co., Kellogg Co.’s, The Hershey Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Grupo Modelo SA, because of the lack of natural gas supplies. Total business losses were estimated at more than 70 million pesos ($6.4 million) a day, the daily newspaper Excelsior reported. The disruption affected PEMEX clients in the industry-rich city of Guadalajara, capital of the western state of Jalisco; the industrial city of Leon, in the central state of Guanajuato; and the central states of Queretaro and Aguascalientes.
Suspected Marxist guerrillas from the Military Zone Command of the People’s Revolutionary Army – a splinter group within the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) – claimed responsibility for the attack, although several Mexican security personnel continue to doubt this claim, suspecting drug cartel involvement.
Near-Term Drug Cartel Threat
We anticipate near-term cartel attacks against security personnel and Mexican government targets and remain concerned that cartel attacks could expand into Mexico City should the Mexican military’s push against cartel operations in the north continue to impact cartel trafficking and processing activities. The August 30 bomb threat was the second in as many days. Although no group or modus operandi has been identified, we continue to suspect the incident was criminal in nature and likely perpetrated by some element of Mexico’s various drug cartels. Since President Calderon began large-scale military and police operations against the cartels in January 2007, cartel violence directed at both rival cartels and the Mexican government and security personnel has intensified, causing both political and economic deterioration in the northern and Pacific states of Mexico.
